01-30-2020, 05:17 AM
Obie - The answer is it could affect a tiny bit of Puna and that most of Puna is shielded by Kilauea.
While true, this is a small comfort to those along Highway 11 in Puna. Just looking at the 1984 flow you can see how close it came to following some of the steepest descent lines down toward Fern Forest and onward through Mountain View & Keeau. The ~100m difference in the vent location near the ridge could make an enormous difference in the ultimate path the lava takes.
https://imgur.com/a/XcUnOwA
This is a quick mapping of the 1984 flow against the steepest descent paths (took only 15 mins as Jim, Tim, Matt, and Frank had packaged it up so nicely - is that enough names for everyone?) Have to dig out flow shapes for more historic data from some earlier packages to make a larger comparison but it's a start.
If you look at the SOEST page you can see how the vents progressively moved east in this image:
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/HCV/mloa1984.gif
So yes, there is some merit to the idea based on recent data, although with all trends it's hard not to invoke the immortal words of Disco Stu:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6LOWKVq5sQ
PS: Here's a recent article about how some of those names are doing in the aftermath of the 2018 flow as you care so much about who some of them might be.
https://magazine.pomona.edu/2019/winter/...e-volcano/
While true, this is a small comfort to those along Highway 11 in Puna. Just looking at the 1984 flow you can see how close it came to following some of the steepest descent lines down toward Fern Forest and onward through Mountain View & Keeau. The ~100m difference in the vent location near the ridge could make an enormous difference in the ultimate path the lava takes.
https://imgur.com/a/XcUnOwA
This is a quick mapping of the 1984 flow against the steepest descent paths (took only 15 mins as Jim, Tim, Matt, and Frank had packaged it up so nicely - is that enough names for everyone?) Have to dig out flow shapes for more historic data from some earlier packages to make a larger comparison but it's a start.
If you look at the SOEST page you can see how the vents progressively moved east in this image:
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/HCV/mloa1984.gif
So yes, there is some merit to the idea based on recent data, although with all trends it's hard not to invoke the immortal words of Disco Stu:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6LOWKVq5sQ
PS: Here's a recent article about how some of those names are doing in the aftermath of the 2018 flow as you care so much about who some of them might be.
https://magazine.pomona.edu/2019/winter/...e-volcano/