01-31-2020, 08:29 AM
No problem HOTPE. I hadn't heard this NERZ vent migration idea before (apparently I don't know the HVO staff well enough to be invited to the KTA tailgating and hottub talks) but a quick search turned up this - https://www.usgs.gov/center-news/volcano...-uncertain
and the first picture shows part of the 1984 flow heading down the southeast flank towards Highway 11 (credit J.P. Lockwood). In trying to better understand the 2017 "Geologic map of the northeast flank of Mauna Loa volcano" (Frank A. Trusdell and John P. Lockwood) linked earlier, I read the accompanying pamphlet (https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/2932/a/sim2932a_pamphlet.pdf) and ran across the mention of Lockwood's original paper. The pamphlet also has this interesting idea in the first couple pages:
"[Mauna Loa] appears to have a self-regulating mechanism that evenly distributes long-term activity across its flanks. The geologic record also supports this notion; the time prior to the historical period (Age Group 1, pre-A.D. 1843–1,000 yr B.P.) is dominated by activity on the south side of the NERZ."
So if the vents are migrating to the southeast, the next NERZ eruption may be the start to a long-term trend where most of the flows head southeast towards the Volcano-to-Keaau inundation zone instead of towards Hilo. Combined with the massive changes at Kilauea, this could be the start of an interesting several hundred years for Puna.
Overall this seemed like a more rewarding use of a couple hours than engaging in the intellectual elitism of demanding bona fides for the idea's author. But whatever, I'm clearly not as cultured as some (I don't read the New Yorker, even just for the cartoons!
and the first picture shows part of the 1984 flow heading down the southeast flank towards Highway 11 (credit J.P. Lockwood). In trying to better understand the 2017 "Geologic map of the northeast flank of Mauna Loa volcano" (Frank A. Trusdell and John P. Lockwood) linked earlier, I read the accompanying pamphlet (https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/2932/a/sim2932a_pamphlet.pdf) and ran across the mention of Lockwood's original paper. The pamphlet also has this interesting idea in the first couple pages:
"[Mauna Loa] appears to have a self-regulating mechanism that evenly distributes long-term activity across its flanks. The geologic record also supports this notion; the time prior to the historical period (Age Group 1, pre-A.D. 1843–1,000 yr B.P.) is dominated by activity on the south side of the NERZ."
So if the vents are migrating to the southeast, the next NERZ eruption may be the start to a long-term trend where most of the flows head southeast towards the Volcano-to-Keaau inundation zone instead of towards Hilo. Combined with the massive changes at Kilauea, this could be the start of an interesting several hundred years for Puna.
Overall this seemed like a more rewarding use of a couple hours than engaging in the intellectual elitism of demanding bona fides for the idea's author. But whatever, I'm clearly not as cultured as some (I don't read the New Yorker, even just for the cartoons!