02-04-2020, 04:41 AM
rainyjim - I guess both events (random mutation & engineered insertion) are unlikely
What makes random mutations unlikely? It's exactly how the virus evolves (there are a few nucleotide differences seen already in the nCov samples taken from different patients around the world) and given the selective pressure on the spike protein a few amino acid changes that boosts virulence is to be expected during its evolutionary separation from RaTG13.
https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/12...6663032833
As for why China locked down such a large area, here are my favorite two conspiracy theories.
1) Contained inoculation: The idea is that this outbreak is actually an intentional inoculation against a second related, but far more deadly, nCov strain to be subsequently released. The lockdown is to help insure that mostly only Chinese receive this treatment and will survive the coming world-wide apocalypse. (pretty good - ruthless government, Nazi/Eugenics overtones, matches waves of outbreaks seen in 1918 Spanish flu, impending and perpetual doom)
2) Economic mutually assured destruction: Because of China's one-child policy, and the trade war with the U.S., their economy can no longer support itself. The virus was released to remove older non-working male "eaters" (males naturally have more ACE2 receptors to which the virus binds) and the shut-down is intentionally "over-reactive" to effect the U.S. and the world economy (which it likely will - OPEC currently scrambling to determine how many millions of barrels of oil to cut). Makes sure everyone feels the pain, and maybe impact the 2020 U.S. election if the stock market / economy tanks, until China is able to get its demographics and economy back in order. (also good - ruthless government, lots of fact matching & predictions, less 12 Monkeys doomsday more 1984 Eastasia vs Oceania geo-political maneuvering)
Note both just presume bioweapon origins without requiring any actual evidence.
What makes random mutations unlikely? It's exactly how the virus evolves (there are a few nucleotide differences seen already in the nCov samples taken from different patients around the world) and given the selective pressure on the spike protein a few amino acid changes that boosts virulence is to be expected during its evolutionary separation from RaTG13.
https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/12...6663032833
As for why China locked down such a large area, here are my favorite two conspiracy theories.
1) Contained inoculation: The idea is that this outbreak is actually an intentional inoculation against a second related, but far more deadly, nCov strain to be subsequently released. The lockdown is to help insure that mostly only Chinese receive this treatment and will survive the coming world-wide apocalypse. (pretty good - ruthless government, Nazi/Eugenics overtones, matches waves of outbreaks seen in 1918 Spanish flu, impending and perpetual doom)
2) Economic mutually assured destruction: Because of China's one-child policy, and the trade war with the U.S., their economy can no longer support itself. The virus was released to remove older non-working male "eaters" (males naturally have more ACE2 receptors to which the virus binds) and the shut-down is intentionally "over-reactive" to effect the U.S. and the world economy (which it likely will - OPEC currently scrambling to determine how many millions of barrels of oil to cut). Makes sure everyone feels the pain, and maybe impact the 2020 U.S. election if the stock market / economy tanks, until China is able to get its demographics and economy back in order. (also good - ruthless government, lots of fact matching & predictions, less 12 Monkeys doomsday more 1984 Eastasia vs Oceania geo-political maneuvering)
Note both just presume bioweapon origins without requiring any actual evidence.