02-07-2020, 02:27 AM
1v1 - you're right in that the unresolved infected cases could go either way. Using CFR = deaths / deaths + recovered (~30%) is like a upper range estimate while CFR = deaths / confirmed cases (~2%) is like the lower range estimate. The true value is in there somewhere but will keep changing as cases get resolved.
Given the unreliability of numbers coming out a Hubei, I tend to look more at data from the other provinces or moreso other countries. While still early, the CFR there is quite low (~1%) although what happens over the next few weeks will give a more complete CFR and whether or not there is sustained transmission outside China aka a pandemic.
Not sure what you mean by Hawaii being used as a "quarantine zone" as other entry points have designated holding areas like Travis AFB in California which seems comparable. Obviously if you don't NEED to travel to Honolulu or other large population areas for the next few weeks, then don't. If you do, wash hands often & thoroughly, minimize contact, and don't touch your face (basic rules for reducing your chances of catching the flu as well).
Given the unreliability of numbers coming out a Hubei, I tend to look more at data from the other provinces or moreso other countries. While still early, the CFR there is quite low (~1%) although what happens over the next few weeks will give a more complete CFR and whether or not there is sustained transmission outside China aka a pandemic.
Not sure what you mean by Hawaii being used as a "quarantine zone" as other entry points have designated holding areas like Travis AFB in California which seems comparable. Obviously if you don't NEED to travel to Honolulu or other large population areas for the next few weeks, then don't. If you do, wash hands often & thoroughly, minimize contact, and don't touch your face (basic rules for reducing your chances of catching the flu as well).