03-01-2020, 05:14 PM
kander - Were looking at a death rate slightly higher than SARS of those who become infected ... Sometimes the truth slips out. An interview done with a Dr in Wuhan leaked a key bit of information.
So he says exactly: "For patients with severe symptoms the mortality is even higher than Sars" This is known of course for patients with severe symptoms, e.g. the death rate or CFR was estimated at 8% -15% for the elderly in overrun Hubei province. That does not mean the overall CFR is greater than SARS at 10%. If we ignore the nutty China data the CFR is closer to 1-2% although there are of course fewer resolved cases. Regardless what the average CFR is, the percentage of severe cases alone requiring hospitalization and/or intensive care is FAR more than our health care system can handle.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fu...le/2762510
terracore - I'm not qualified to post a prediction.
Sorry if I made it sound that way - I was just saying that I wasn't arguing with you in regards to much of what you've been saying (risk of reinfection, lack of ventilators, possible economic effects, etc). All serious and well-documented factors to consider.
Panic: The Untold Story of the 2008 Financial Crisis
Thanks for this! (don't know how I missed it before). That's a heavy shot of high-grade flashback of the daily insanity and how a handful of government individuals made choices that affected millions of people and trillions of dollars. At least they seemed to care about finding a solution compared to those running the show now?
Coronavirus may have spread undetected in US for weeks
Note though that the total number of related cases is probably in the hundreds and with it being flu season these may not have stood out. 100+ people die of the flu each day in the U.S. - probably hard to identify a handful of flu-like cases that may have been more severe than usual.
tl;dr - looks bad, soon to get worse, have money, don't get sick
So he says exactly: "For patients with severe symptoms the mortality is even higher than Sars" This is known of course for patients with severe symptoms, e.g. the death rate or CFR was estimated at 8% -15% for the elderly in overrun Hubei province. That does not mean the overall CFR is greater than SARS at 10%. If we ignore the nutty China data the CFR is closer to 1-2% although there are of course fewer resolved cases. Regardless what the average CFR is, the percentage of severe cases alone requiring hospitalization and/or intensive care is FAR more than our health care system can handle.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fu...le/2762510
terracore - I'm not qualified to post a prediction.
Sorry if I made it sound that way - I was just saying that I wasn't arguing with you in regards to much of what you've been saying (risk of reinfection, lack of ventilators, possible economic effects, etc). All serious and well-documented factors to consider.
Panic: The Untold Story of the 2008 Financial Crisis
Thanks for this! (don't know how I missed it before). That's a heavy shot of high-grade flashback of the daily insanity and how a handful of government individuals made choices that affected millions of people and trillions of dollars. At least they seemed to care about finding a solution compared to those running the show now?
Coronavirus may have spread undetected in US for weeks
Note though that the total number of related cases is probably in the hundreds and with it being flu season these may not have stood out. 100+ people die of the flu each day in the U.S. - probably hard to identify a handful of flu-like cases that may have been more severe than usual.
tl;dr - looks bad, soon to get worse, have money, don't get sick