03-12-2020, 03:34 AM
Originally posted by ironyak
- 7B world population * 40% infection rate * 1% mortality = 28,000,000 deaths world-wide (1.3M in the US)
- 7B world population * 70% infection rate * 1% mortality = 49,000,000 deaths world-wide (2.3M in the US)
If the mortality rate is actually higher (like the 3.4% WHO estimate), the numbers are worse (like 3x worse). It's not just the flu bro.
Sounds like about a (hopefully one time) doubling of the normal US death rate (2.5 million-ish per year) except that a significant percentage of those with pre-existing health conditions who succumb to coronavirus would be in the normal death rate anyway.
from the death percent thread:
Yes, the elderly and ill at health are more at risk of dying (from 1 in 30 people aged 60-69 dying to about 1 in 8 people aged 80+.) Do you know 30 people above the age of 60? This means one or more of them are likely to die from this if they get infected.
That does not mean young people don't die. For every 1000 teenagers that get this, about 2 of them will die. That is true for every age group up to 40 at which point it starts to go up.
Those odds really don't seem that treacherous to me, but to misquote Stalin, one death is tragic, but a million deaths is a statistic.
We are in uncharted waters - here be dragons!
As we have been in the past and will be in the future.
This will play out however it plays out and is largely beyond an individual's control in the long term regardless of how flattened the curve gets.
All things being equal (which of course they are not) I wouldn't mind if I was already exposed (and maybe I am) to COVID-19. If I die, I die. I like my odds. I should probably fear death more than I do, but I just don't.
In general, this sort of fatalism means that my quality of life is better than it would be if living in fear, panic, etc. Or so it seems. The majority of those around me seem to have a similar approach--that SugarHoneyIceTea happens.
Of course, I will do what I can to flatten the curve and be a team player.
Cheers,
Kirt
- 7B world population * 40% infection rate * 1% mortality = 28,000,000 deaths world-wide (1.3M in the US)
- 7B world population * 70% infection rate * 1% mortality = 49,000,000 deaths world-wide (2.3M in the US)
If the mortality rate is actually higher (like the 3.4% WHO estimate), the numbers are worse (like 3x worse). It's not just the flu bro.
Sounds like about a (hopefully one time) doubling of the normal US death rate (2.5 million-ish per year) except that a significant percentage of those with pre-existing health conditions who succumb to coronavirus would be in the normal death rate anyway.
from the death percent thread:
Yes, the elderly and ill at health are more at risk of dying (from 1 in 30 people aged 60-69 dying to about 1 in 8 people aged 80+.) Do you know 30 people above the age of 60? This means one or more of them are likely to die from this if they get infected.
That does not mean young people don't die. For every 1000 teenagers that get this, about 2 of them will die. That is true for every age group up to 40 at which point it starts to go up.
Those odds really don't seem that treacherous to me, but to misquote Stalin, one death is tragic, but a million deaths is a statistic.
We are in uncharted waters - here be dragons!
As we have been in the past and will be in the future.
This will play out however it plays out and is largely beyond an individual's control in the long term regardless of how flattened the curve gets.
All things being equal (which of course they are not) I wouldn't mind if I was already exposed (and maybe I am) to COVID-19. If I die, I die. I like my odds. I should probably fear death more than I do, but I just don't.
In general, this sort of fatalism means that my quality of life is better than it would be if living in fear, panic, etc. Or so it seems. The majority of those around me seem to have a similar approach--that SugarHoneyIceTea happens.
Of course, I will do what I can to flatten the curve and be a team player.
Cheers,
Kirt