NIH urges Americans to take COVID-19 seriously now

[knieft]

quote:

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Originally posted by ironyak

Ignored from my post: except that a significant percentage of those with pre-existing health conditions who succumb to coronavirus would be in the normal death rate anyway.

Not ignored (maybe glossed over but while there would likely be some overlap, there is no way to know the extent. Some of those 2.5 million deaths would not be redundant with the flu (cancer, accidental injury, & Alzheimers for instance).

The math matters as that is what separates this from flu in every possible measure. While only time will tell for sure, but some are already learning these bitter calculations.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/i...33285.html

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No way to know the extent? I agree, but “some overlap” might be minimizing the extent. I don’t see how cancer should be dismissed. Accidental injury, ok. Alzheimer’s ok.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

The math may well be in retrospect, showing the range/accuracy of all these estimates in reality. The point is, what does it matter about predictions on mathematical models. The “advice” would be the same.

I don’t get the aljazeera link. That people are dying? Of course. How does fetishizing mathematical predictions change what will happen?

OK, it’s different from the flu. It’s different from smallpox. It is what it is. They aren’t learning from bitter calculations, they are dying from a combination of an aging immune system, pre-existing conditions, and bad luck with a virus.

There is no way to know the extent of how many corona deaths occur in folks with troubles that would have lead to their death in a month, a year, or longer? I would think math would help come up with something on that...? Assuming the event runs its course without significant replay, perhaps the normal death rate would drop significantly because it was “pressured” or “compressed” by corona. Math might predict that.

I won’t bring up your math on the negative percentage of Hawaii population testing (oops) except to say that I hope you keep posting since you are a great resource on PunaWeb in these times of crisis, lava and virus. Sincerely.

FWIW, I will be arguing ten days from now (locally) for school closure, though that is likely way to late to make any difference in the outcome, excepting hopefully flattening the curve.

I wanna flatten that brotherfighting motherhating curve!

Cheers,
Kirt