04-09-2020, 03:59 AM
quote:
Originally posted by TomK
Durian Fiend wrote:
"Substantially less than the peak required beds projected by IHME in 4 days. I think it says 390! https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st...ica/hawaii"
You need to look at the projections on that site a little more carefully as they come with uncertainties plus they change on a daily basis. Indeed right now, the projection is 390 at the predicted peak, but that number is +/- 1664/317 (I suspect there is a log scale involved in the calculation which is why + is so much greater than -). At the moment, the hospitilzation rates are within predicted values. It's just fortunate that they are currently at the lower end of the predictions.
Hospitalization number is not currently within predicted values from that site, it's below. Bottom number for April 9 is 50, total number hospitalized so far in Hawaii is given as 42. I would imagine not all of those people are still hospitalized.