04-13-2020, 02:27 PM
Completing the sentence...
"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively. (note this is specifically about clinical consequences - what the treatment regiment looks like and the fatality percentages (not totals) involved.
Of course, Covid-19 is closer to a pandemic influenza than SARS or MERS given the huge differences in CFR. Covid-19 is also far more transmissible which is what the whole next paragraph is about.
"The efficiency of transmission for any respiratory virus has important implications for containment and mitigation strategies. The current study indicates an estimated basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2, which means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an additional two persons. As the authors note, until this number falls below 1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread. Recent reports of high titers of virus in the oropharynx early in the course of disease arouse concern about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms."
A 50% CFR (like Ebola) is very lethal, but few catch it as it is not very transmissible. SARS and MERS are similar in this regard.
Covid-19 has a much lower CFR but many many many more people will catch it. You can't just focus on one variable for your comparison when the other will be many magnitudes larger. (the difference between <1% and 30% means very little when the other variable is 100,000 to 1 or more)
Hard to take your media criticism seriously when it appears you've selectively quoted this article to push a particular narrow interpretation?
"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively. (note this is specifically about clinical consequences - what the treatment regiment looks like and the fatality percentages (not totals) involved.
Of course, Covid-19 is closer to a pandemic influenza than SARS or MERS given the huge differences in CFR. Covid-19 is also far more transmissible which is what the whole next paragraph is about.
"The efficiency of transmission for any respiratory virus has important implications for containment and mitigation strategies. The current study indicates an estimated basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2, which means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an additional two persons. As the authors note, until this number falls below 1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread. Recent reports of high titers of virus in the oropharynx early in the course of disease arouse concern about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms."
A 50% CFR (like Ebola) is very lethal, but few catch it as it is not very transmissible. SARS and MERS are similar in this regard.
Covid-19 has a much lower CFR but many many many more people will catch it. You can't just focus on one variable for your comparison when the other will be many magnitudes larger. (the difference between <1% and 30% means very little when the other variable is 100,000 to 1 or more)
Hard to take your media criticism seriously when it appears you've selectively quoted this article to push a particular narrow interpretation?