04-17-2020, 09:07 AM
Yeah, I would say that is a misreading, unless you're just saying that an increasing number of models are predicting less cases and mortality than before (which is what happens when you put the more recent data into models as it accounts for all the social distancing that is happening) The rest of the predictions for the IHME (peak time and height, plateauing, curve duration, have all not matched real world data very well (as all the model does is take early data such as from Wuhan and Italy, mirror the early portion of the data to create an artificial symmetry on the downward slope, and then try to match everyone's current numbers to those curves)
Basically the effectiveness of social distancing and people's adherence to it has had more of an effect than even the more conservative of estimates given by the models.
The good news - social distancing is working.
The bad news - Downward trends do not mean the virus has gone away or we've reached herd immunity (need 50-66% infections for this to be true - estimates for the US are around 3% in some areas)
The big question - how much can the restrictions be lifted before restarting the exponential curve of new cases and deaths? Time will tell, and the models have next to no data to go by in making such predictions.
The wild card - how much longer will people choose to participate? Many states already have protest groups saying how it is all a hoax and being goaded on by the President to break stay-at-home requirements. Their curves for new cases will be telling in the coming weeks to see the potential costs in human health and deaths for such "expressions of freedom".
Basically the effectiveness of social distancing and people's adherence to it has had more of an effect than even the more conservative of estimates given by the models.
The good news - social distancing is working.
The bad news - Downward trends do not mean the virus has gone away or we've reached herd immunity (need 50-66% infections for this to be true - estimates for the US are around 3% in some areas)
The big question - how much can the restrictions be lifted before restarting the exponential curve of new cases and deaths? Time will tell, and the models have next to no data to go by in making such predictions.
The wild card - how much longer will people choose to participate? Many states already have protest groups saying how it is all a hoax and being goaded on by the President to break stay-at-home requirements. Their curves for new cases will be telling in the coming weeks to see the potential costs in human health and deaths for such "expressions of freedom".