04-17-2020, 10:17 AM
Durian Fiend - Peak time and height have been fairly accurate too with IHME.
Um no, they haven't. If you want a full criticism of the IHME model, see this from a week ago. (I think you may just be comparing the most recent revision to the near term results, but if you look across the IHME predictions they have been wildly off, but are used to guide policy at the highest levels)
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/co...nreliable/
"As I detailed in the last post, the revised April 5 model was grossly wrong even in predicting conditions that would obtain on April 5 itself. It had predicted that on that day, New York, the epicenter of the crisis, would need about 24,000 hospital beds, including 6,000 ICU beds. In fact, the model was off by a third — New York had 16,479 hospitalized COVID patients, 4,376 that were in ICU.
On April 8, IHME reduced the total number of hospital beds it had predicted would be needed nationally by a remarkable 166,890 — down to 95,202 from the 262,092 it had predicted less than a week earlier (i.e., it was nearly two-thirds off). The ICU projection over that same week was cut in half: to 19,816 on April 8, down from 39,727 on April 2. The projected need for ventilators also fell by nearly half, to 16,845 from 31,782."
more at link
Um no, they haven't. If you want a full criticism of the IHME model, see this from a week ago. (I think you may just be comparing the most recent revision to the near term results, but if you look across the IHME predictions they have been wildly off, but are used to guide policy at the highest levels)
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/co...nreliable/
"As I detailed in the last post, the revised April 5 model was grossly wrong even in predicting conditions that would obtain on April 5 itself. It had predicted that on that day, New York, the epicenter of the crisis, would need about 24,000 hospital beds, including 6,000 ICU beds. In fact, the model was off by a third — New York had 16,479 hospitalized COVID patients, 4,376 that were in ICU.
On April 8, IHME reduced the total number of hospital beds it had predicted would be needed nationally by a remarkable 166,890 — down to 95,202 from the 262,092 it had predicted less than a week earlier (i.e., it was nearly two-thirds off). The ICU projection over that same week was cut in half: to 19,816 on April 8, down from 39,727 on April 2. The projected need for ventilators also fell by nearly half, to 16,845 from 31,782."
more at link