04-17-2020, 10:42 AM
The "beds needed" numbers have always had an enormous range, from very small to very large. Definitely not useful for predicting, IMO.
Nate Silver's twitter account is always an interesting read. Regarding IHME, he says:
"There are some good critiques of the IHME model in here IMO but this line bothered me. Model outputs *should* change in response to new data and when you're dealing with nonlinear systems, small changes can have a reasonably large effect." https://statnews.com/2020/04/17/influent...itics-say/
He goes on to suggest critics should build their own model, which in fact has been done here: https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections
Nate Silver's twitter account is always an interesting read. Regarding IHME, he says:
"There are some good critiques of the IHME model in here IMO but this line bothered me. Model outputs *should* change in response to new data and when you're dealing with nonlinear systems, small changes can have a reasonably large effect." https://statnews.com/2020/04/17/influent...itics-say/
He goes on to suggest critics should build their own model, which in fact has been done here: https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections