04-17-2020, 07:11 PM
So, below is a question for those dealing with COVID-19 statistics on PW. It's not my question, it's from elsewhere, but am interested to see answers (please, without googling):
The examination is designed to demonstrate whether a person is carrying the virus or not.
The exam has only two outcomes, positive or negative.
If a testee has the virus the test has a 95% probability of giving a positive result.
For those not carrying the virus the test has a 95% probability of giving a negative result.
What is the probability that an individual - selected at random, tested, and obtains a positive result - actually carries the virus?
The examination is designed to demonstrate whether a person is carrying the virus or not.
The exam has only two outcomes, positive or negative.
If a testee has the virus the test has a 95% probability of giving a positive result.
For those not carrying the virus the test has a 95% probability of giving a negative result.
What is the probability that an individual - selected at random, tested, and obtains a positive result - actually carries the virus?