Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here)

[ironyak]

Me - It looks like your forgot some crucial info for your problem (or at least the good Reverend Thomas [Bayes] might say so)
TomK - No, I didn't.

So this was just for me to see if I know my Baysian Conditional Probability. I thought it was for everyone Tom?

Here's a noodle scratcher - how do you know what x is (the disease prevalence in the population for Paul's equation) when you don't have a validated test? That's the whole point and problem with a new test for a new disease with an unknown prevalence is you don't know this information as that is what the test is trying to determine.

Nice work though PaulW - really pulled that "out of nowhere." Any insights on Fermat's Last Theorem while you're warmed up?

But please TomK, if these two tests can pull up an actual result by their bootstraps, do share. I'm sure we'd all learn something from what you found on the internet.

Meanwhile, I'm going to go see if I can score some drugs at Dartmouth ya hack. (Nice job editing out the extra info actually needed to solve the question as I said)
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/...on3_8.html