04-19-2020, 05:04 AM
PaulW - 0.95 * x + 0.05 * (100 - x)
where x is the actual percentage of the population that has the virus.
Durian Fiend - Should be a minus there instead of plus.
There's a lot more wrong with the equation than that symbol. 100 versus 0.95? Using percentages is tricky...
Think about the symmetry of the 5% true positives and 5% false positives and what that might mean when you ASSUME the disease prevalence (which you still don't know) is low. (sorry "teacher" Tom, no dark sarcasm in this classroom, we don't need no thought control...)
where x is the actual percentage of the population that has the virus.
Durian Fiend - Should be a minus there instead of plus.
There's a lot more wrong with the equation than that symbol. 100 versus 0.95? Using percentages is tricky...
Think about the symmetry of the 5% true positives and 5% false positives and what that might mean when you ASSUME the disease prevalence (which you still don't know) is low. (sorry "teacher" Tom, no dark sarcasm in this classroom, we don't need no thought control...)