04-19-2020, 12:47 PM
kander - n may be as high as 80%
Antibody tests seem to be more important of testing factor.
I think you meant that n (the total number of cases) may be 50x - 80x (5000% - 8000%) higher than the confirmed cases. The percent of residents testing positive for having antibodies for covid is still about 3% (2.5% - 4.2%). Given an R0 or 2 - 3, a population needs 50% - 66% recovered individuals for "herd immunity" to kick in.
http://archive.is/9aDP8
"The researchers found that the percentage of infections was indeed vastly larger than the roughly 1,000 known positive cases in the county at the time of the study. The preliminary results—the research will now undergo peer review—show that between 2.5% and 4.2% of county residents are estimated to have antibodies against the virus. That translates into 48,000 to 81,000 infections, 50 to 85 times as high as the number of known cases."
Antibody tests seem to be more important of testing factor.
I think you meant that n (the total number of cases) may be 50x - 80x (5000% - 8000%) higher than the confirmed cases. The percent of residents testing positive for having antibodies for covid is still about 3% (2.5% - 4.2%). Given an R0 or 2 - 3, a population needs 50% - 66% recovered individuals for "herd immunity" to kick in.
http://archive.is/9aDP8
"The researchers found that the percentage of infections was indeed vastly larger than the roughly 1,000 known positive cases in the county at the time of the study. The preliminary results—the research will now undergo peer review—show that between 2.5% and 4.2% of county residents are estimated to have antibodies against the virus. That translates into 48,000 to 81,000 infections, 50 to 85 times as high as the number of known cases."