04-20-2020, 05:15 AM
"If that were true nationwide then the approximate death rate to date from Covid19 would be more in line with estimates for the flu, correct?"
The absolute death rate or the CFR? Initially it seemed that Covid-19 was twice as contagious (R0 of 2.5 vs 1.2) and 10 times as deadly (CFR of more than 1% vs .1%) as the flue. We are now realizing that lots more people are getting infected. With the observed number of deaths and the revised number of infections you work backwards to calculate the revised CFR. We may end up realizing it is 10 times as infectious and twice as deadly as the flue but we will be no better off. The hospitals are overwhelmed either way and this is demonstrably worse than the flue.
The absolute death rate or the CFR? Initially it seemed that Covid-19 was twice as contagious (R0 of 2.5 vs 1.2) and 10 times as deadly (CFR of more than 1% vs .1%) as the flue. We are now realizing that lots more people are getting infected. With the observed number of deaths and the revised number of infections you work backwards to calculate the revised CFR. We may end up realizing it is 10 times as infectious and twice as deadly as the flue but we will be no better off. The hospitals are overwhelmed either way and this is demonstrably worse than the flue.