(02-28-2021, 10:30 PM)achutch3 Wrote: ...besides the lower real estate costs in lava zone 2 what else would motivate someone to buy in lava zone 2?
The pros of buying/living in zone two is OMG it is a lovely environment, if you like that sort of thing and are willing to risk everything to be there. And yes, property values are lower, relatively, because of that fact. And, it is a fact that the land you are on will be, not might be, but will be for sure, inundated at some point in the relatively short term future. Your lifetime? Maybe not. But talk to the folks in Kapoho who chanted, for years, not in their lifetime.
You might want to look at this video for an overview of what I mean..
https://youtu.be/Ooes_mqTwME?t=775
The whole video is very educational, but I have set it to start where Dr. Ken Hon, the narrator, focuses on just how much, and how fast, Kilauea covers itself. Keep in mind, this video was made before the eruption in 2018.
The list of cons only grows from there. To begin with your investment is pretty much up for grabs. You could lose it all to nature, or conversely, you could lose it all legislatively. I say this because there are rumblings in the halls of government about a complete review of our official stance on LZ1 and LZ2. You will note that today there is no real difference in any government laws, or codes etc., but that may change.
Of course, in the private sector, insurance companies are not all that interested in insuring investments in LZ1 and LZ2. And this has become more of a concern after the 2018 eruption than it was before. Also note that the federal government has declared they will no longer invest as they did before in LZ1 and LZ2 either. HUD came to the island last year to make this point clear to our legislative body. Watch this video for more on that..
https://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2019/...zones-1-2/
There you’ll see one of our county council members asking if the boundaries of the zones can be adjusted. The back story on that is after the 2018 eruption loans for development in LZ2 dried up. This, as you can imagine, had a very negative impact on farmers in the agriculture sections of the island that fall within those boundaries. Especially in South Kona, ie coffee farms and such, as the banks stopped lending in the area. Maile David, the council member featured in that video, who represents that side of the island, has gotten a lot of flack from her constituents over this issue.
As a result of all that, I suspect, the entire government stance on LZ1 and LZ2 is heading towards review. It may take a while, but the consequences of our government not being prepared for the eruption in 2018 are coming back to bite us. Even the Lava Zone Map could be reviewed, updated, since as a base for all policy discussions it is itself outdated. Which is to say any understanding of the zoning and rights of a private landowner in LZ1 and LZ2 may be revised in time.
Also note that currently in order to sustain any kind of development in LZ1 and LZ2 the state offers insurance for homeowners at a premium. In 1991, the Hawaii Legislature created the Hawaii Property Insurance Agency (HPIA) as a result of the Town of Kalapana being destroyed by lava in 1990 and insurance companies becoming hesitant to insure in danger zones. This has allowed our local governments to turn a blind eye to the actual dangers involved, and subsequently created the disaster in 2018 where far too many homes were destroyed. Homes that would not have been in harms way had HPIA never been formed.
A good article on HPIA and its effect can be read here…
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/390...ster-worse
With that in mind it is prudent to ask yourself how long can Hawaii sustain the illusion of all is well in LZ1 and LZ2? And, note, once these issues are confronted, even places like the town of Pahoa, which is in LZ2, could change dramatically if county and state actually take responsibility for their actions.
"I am curious what the USGS will do to redraw the lava Zones after this last eruption”
The last eruption did nothing to change the lava zone (LZ) map, other than to show how valid it is. In other words, LZ1 is where eruptions are likely to break out, and LZ2 is where lava flows from those eruptions are likely to flow. Whereas zone three is within the boundaries of likely flow actively but not in the immediate future. Although zone three can become active in the blink of an eye, it is more unlikely than in zones one and two.
Also worth noting is the fact that the USGS themselves says this about the boundaries between lava zones..
"Hazard-zone boundaries are drawn as double lines because of the geologic uncertainty in their placement. Most boundaries are gradational, and the change in the degree of hazard can be found over a distance of a mile or more.”
Of course one needs to keep in mind that the most recent revision of the Lava Zone Map was in 1992, before our data collection was enhanced by satellites, and the myriad of studies done since. So with the next update maybe the boundaries will change, but if they do it will only be slightly, and I doubt enough to effect any of us.