09-14-2021, 01:21 AM
If people want to ignore the R0 of 6.0 in my post (for whatever reason), it's not material to the overall point - the overall point is whether the population being analyzed has an R0 of more or less than 1.0, that there are several factors that can lead to lowering the value to below 1.0, and that once the overwhelming majority of people are vaccinated, the virus will rapidly decline to zero.
This isn't purely theoretical, by the way. As a real-world example of what I'm talking about, Denmark got its vaccination rate above 80%, got its number of cases close to zero, and over the weekend, it dropped all of its COVID restrictions. No masks, no showing vaccination cards, no limits on capacity at restaurants or concerts or whatever. In other words, back to pre-2020. Here's a story for those who are interested: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/103613624...strictions
And here's a graph of vaccination rates over time, with a number of countries including the US. As you can see, the US has started to lag way behind, and it's the main reason why countries such as Denmark are getting back to normal life and our situation is actually getting worse instead of better.
This isn't purely theoretical, by the way. As a real-world example of what I'm talking about, Denmark got its vaccination rate above 80%, got its number of cases close to zero, and over the weekend, it dropped all of its COVID restrictions. No masks, no showing vaccination cards, no limits on capacity at restaurants or concerts or whatever. In other words, back to pre-2020. Here's a story for those who are interested: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/103613624...strictions
And here's a graph of vaccination rates over time, with a number of countries including the US. As you can see, the US has started to lag way behind, and it's the main reason why countries such as Denmark are getting back to normal life and our situation is actually getting worse instead of better.
Leilani Estates, 2011 to Present