Kilauea: what’s next?

[MyManao]

That was the most direct downhill route so not exactly a surprise.  At least not to the residents I spoke with a day or two before the flow rounded Green Mountain..

Yes, it was the obvious choice after all the other's were used. So sure, by the time that event was unfolding it was clear to all of us. Even from afar, watching through the digital streams of data alone it was obvious, there was only one blue line left as the earlier ones were occupied and became ridges instead. 

But would you, a few years back, without the history of her earlier forays to the northeast, and the south, all conspiring to limit her path to the eventual east, been quick enough to see that as a probable outcome from a Leilani eruption? When you thought about such things back in the day did you ever imagine? Remember, before the eruption the land fell away from Leilani towards Waawaa. The wrap around over the rift to the south led to points east of Opihikao. And it was only when those routes were occupied and became topographic highs that were impassable to future flows that a path towards Kapoho became viable.

I'm just pointing out that there are forces at play that do, when looked at close enough, conspire to at least hold the door open to such an eventuality for the Volcano area. Whereas, as I tried to make clear, from our common perspectives the Volcano community looks like it's nestled in such a place, on the summit's flank as to be shielded from such a calamity. Sort of like the way I suspect most people thought about the idea of a Leilani eruption threatening Kapoho before all that began.

It looks like that when driving towards the north on Wright rd. while it falls off of Kilauea into a trough as it passes through the Olaa track of the National Park and then begins to climb up the slope of Mauna Loa into the Farm Lots. And looking north from that rise in the back of Iiwi rd, suggest the same, a perch of sorts above the general landscape. And then of course, by the time you get to the Strip rd, in the west, the ride from highway 11 is down to Bird Park before the road begins to ascend up Mauna Loa's flank. So, over all, in our daily lives, it's easy to live in the area and think it sits above the surrounding landscape on all sides. But check out the far less frequented back of the Golf Course subdivision, there isn't much in the way of relief there. Really. I doubt there is any.

As such, in response to Ccat's question I am pointing out these conditions exist, and commenting how unlikely to me they seem when looking around and considering all the possibilities. And, how 'unlikely' things seem to warrant our considerations these days.