11-03-2022, 01:16 AM
I wonder if the scientists can forecast where the lava will probably go..
Sure, once it erupts you could predict where it will go yourself.. it’s pretty much as simple as it will go downhill. HVO was spot on during the 2018 eruption with their blue lined maps. But predicting where it will erupt before it does? Not this far from an event. And keep in mind, in the initial hours of an eruption if it's anything like it was in 1984, the whole mountain may rip open. Miles of fissures that can only be interpreted when most of them shut down and she erupts from a specific location.
As to where, and how frequently? I think the good ol’ Lava Zone Map tells the story in the simplest terms. That map, as tried and true as it is, clearly delineates the places most likely to host eruptions (Lava Zone 1), the places where the lava will most likely flow from there (Lava Zone 2), the places it might flow in the event of a long term event (Lava Zone 3), and the places where it is very unlikely to flow (Lava Zone 6). And you can see this at..
https://pubs.usgs.gov/mf/1992/2193/
Using the Lava Zone Map as a guide it's most likely the eruption will be at the summit or down one of the volcano’s two rifts. And, based on prior history, it’s more possible that if it goes to the west the lava that flows from the vents will impact the western slope, between South Point and Hookena, and be less likely to flow to the south.. towards Pahala and such. And that would be, no matter what, a disaster. Now, verses the last time the volcano erupted on that side in 1950, there’s too many people, and we can expect to have little warning, and there’s only one road.
If the eruption goes to the east side of the summit it is likely to repeat what it did in 1984. Erupt from the 9,000 foot elevation and send flows towards Hilo that will take weeks to get there. If at all. The least likely scenario, as with the western rift, is lava flows not heading towards Hilo but flowing to the south of the rift towards Upper Puna.
Also, beyond the scope of the Lava Zone Map’s definitions there is a much rarer chance for an eruption outside of the predicted summit and rifts (Lava Zone 1) areas. So there are wildcards like the hotels on the North Kona side.. but that would take weeks to reach anything down that path.
Sure, once it erupts you could predict where it will go yourself.. it’s pretty much as simple as it will go downhill. HVO was spot on during the 2018 eruption with their blue lined maps. But predicting where it will erupt before it does? Not this far from an event. And keep in mind, in the initial hours of an eruption if it's anything like it was in 1984, the whole mountain may rip open. Miles of fissures that can only be interpreted when most of them shut down and she erupts from a specific location.
As to where, and how frequently? I think the good ol’ Lava Zone Map tells the story in the simplest terms. That map, as tried and true as it is, clearly delineates the places most likely to host eruptions (Lava Zone 1), the places where the lava will most likely flow from there (Lava Zone 2), the places it might flow in the event of a long term event (Lava Zone 3), and the places where it is very unlikely to flow (Lava Zone 6). And you can see this at..
https://pubs.usgs.gov/mf/1992/2193/
Using the Lava Zone Map as a guide it's most likely the eruption will be at the summit or down one of the volcano’s two rifts. And, based on prior history, it’s more possible that if it goes to the west the lava that flows from the vents will impact the western slope, between South Point and Hookena, and be less likely to flow to the south.. towards Pahala and such. And that would be, no matter what, a disaster. Now, verses the last time the volcano erupted on that side in 1950, there’s too many people, and we can expect to have little warning, and there’s only one road.
If the eruption goes to the east side of the summit it is likely to repeat what it did in 1984. Erupt from the 9,000 foot elevation and send flows towards Hilo that will take weeks to get there. If at all. The least likely scenario, as with the western rift, is lava flows not heading towards Hilo but flowing to the south of the rift towards Upper Puna.
Also, beyond the scope of the Lava Zone Map’s definitions there is a much rarer chance for an eruption outside of the predicted summit and rifts (Lava Zone 1) areas. So there are wildcards like the hotels on the North Kona side.. but that would take weeks to reach anything down that path.