I hope so too. Durian Fiend has already touched on probably the biggest bit of skepticism I have. There's more to it though, including the lack of steering winds during an El Nino and that warmer sea temperatures don't necessarily mean more hurricanes, it's just that hurricanes that do form may be more powerful. That's obviously not good if one hits us, but we're a very small target.
However, this article caught my attention:
"Expected El Niño Brings 50% Chance Above-Normal Cyclone Activity For Hawaiʻi"
https://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2023/...ai%CA%BBi/
That means NOAA is saying it's a coin toss and I don't see that as a useful forecast. It likely demonstrates that we don't know enough yet about what these conditions will bring which is why I'm so skeptical.
However, this article caught my attention:
"Expected El Niño Brings 50% Chance Above-Normal Cyclone Activity For Hawaiʻi"
https://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2023/...ai%CA%BBi/
That means NOAA is saying it's a coin toss and I don't see that as a useful forecast. It likely demonstrates that we don't know enough yet about what these conditions will bring which is why I'm so skeptical.