07-18-2023, 01:27 AM
Here's the latest from the Puna Weather group:
Hilo Puna and Hamakua area Forecast
Partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon and mostly clear tonight. Clouds will increase on Tuesday, leading to the first rain and wind from Calvin Tuesday evening. Rainfall will increase rapidly, becoming heavy at times by 10PM and possibly reaching 2 to 3 inches per hour after midnight and continuing like that for several hours. Rain should dissipate to showers toward morning, with more normal intensity showers continuing Wednesday morning before diminishing in the afternoon. Winds will also be increasin through the evening, peaking around 30 to 45 mph just after midnight before diminishing toward morning to more normal 15 to 25mph from the E to SE Wednesday morning.Total rainfall will be between 6 to 12 inches overnight Tuesday night. more normal trade wind weather will replace Calvin's stormy conditions late Wednesday through the coming weekend. Since there is a strong possiblity that winds may increase to 35 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 55mph over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, all loose objects should be secured or removed from outside the home. Any albezia trees or other loosely rooted or with damaged limbs that may impact your property should already be cut down. Heavy rainfall is expected beginning Tuesday night and coniinuing into Wednesday. This could cause Flash Flooding and ponding of water in all low-lying areas and may make roads impassable at times. Trees my be toppled by the wind and soft soil and may block roads, as well. Listen to all Emergency Managers through this period for updates and Warnings.
Waikoloa Forecast
The normal summer pattern of sunny morning skies over Waikoloa, with moderate to breezy downslope and offshore winds will continue on Tuesday, but sea beezes may be limited to the more immediate beaches and shoreline, with east to northeast downsloping winds increasing Tuesday as Calvin approaches. Overcast skies with periods of rain will follow Tuesday night, with only isolated areas of heavy rainfall, particularly upslope of Honoka`a, in Waimea and in some spots across the upper Waikoloa slopes, including Hualalai and vicinity. Rainfall will diminish Wednesday morning, all areas, with some clearing and winds diminishing through the day Wednesday. Waikoloa will see a return of the more normal summer pattern of sunny mornings, with some upslope afternoon cloudiness and isolated showers, leading to clear nighttime skies on Thursday and continuing into the coming weekend. Expect highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s during this period, from the resorts to Waikoloa Village... albeit a bit cooler during the afternoons at the beaches due to the sea brezes and over the upper Waikoloa slope due to cloud cover. Effects from Calvin, now a weakening tropical storm moving in our direction from about 800 miles ESE of Hilo, as described elsewhere in this forecast, will be felt late Tuesday into Wednesday on our island. In Waikoloa, winds may reach speeds of 35 to 50mph with gusts as high as 65mph Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which have the potential of moving loose objects and knocking down some varieties of trees. With the current track now taking the center of Calvin just south of South Point, confidence remains high that Calvin will likely bring Tropical Storm force winds to much of our island, along with torrential rainfall, especially along the Hamakua Waikoloa and North Kohala southward to some portions of Kailua Kona and South Kona may feel the worst of the strong and damaging winds, along with briefly heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms that make it over from the Hilo side or form in the lee of the mountains. Please take all necessary precautions, including stocking up on food, water and supplies and tying down or securing loose objects in preparation for a significant implact from Calvin in the next few days.
Hawaii Synopsis
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast today with wind speeds increasing from tonight into Tuesday night as Tropical Storm Calvin approaches the state. Calvin will likely move over of close to the Big Island from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then pass westward to the south of the smaller islands. Heavy rain and high surf will be some of the effects of this storm's passage. Breezy trade winds and more stable conditions will fill in behind Calvin on Thursday as it weakens and passes farther westward away from the islands.
Big Island Discussion
Satellite imagery this morning shows a weak low level trough passing just north of the island chain with some unstable clouds that will enhance shower activity mainly over windward and mountain areas of each island this morning. Tropical Storm Calvin located roughly 900 miles east of Hilo remains on a high confidence westward track into the Hawaiian Islands over the next three days.
Despite the latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, which shows Calvin continuing to weaken as it passes over cool waters, draws in more stable drier air, and encounters increasing vertical wind shear. weather and water impacts remain likely for the eastern half of the state, as Calvin approaches and moves past Hawaii Island late Tuesday into Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Big Island and surrounding coastal waters, with Tropical Storm impacts possible from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. A Flood Watch was also issued for the same time period. The potential for significant weather and water impacts from Calvin may extend far from the center of the Tropical Storm.
Two main factors that will limit our exposure to these weather and water impacts are: Tropical Storm Force winds are weakening as the storm approaches the state due to less favorable environmental conditions, and the forward speed of the system is fairly quick limiting the amount of time over our island. Strong winds and heavy rainfall potential will probably be limited to around 12 to 18 hours for any one location. The earliest reasonable arrival time for Tropical Storm force winds for the Big Island is around Tuesday evening.
Since the public and marine forecasts for Hawaii are highly dependent on the tropical cyclone bulletins issued at 11 am/pm and 5 am/pm HST, our regularly scheduled forecast issuances will be issued shortly after these bulletins are released.
Trade winds will fill by Thursday as Calvin weakens and passes westward away from the island chain.
Mahalo!
Bob Farrell
Hilo Puna and Hamakua area Forecast
Partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon and mostly clear tonight. Clouds will increase on Tuesday, leading to the first rain and wind from Calvin Tuesday evening. Rainfall will increase rapidly, becoming heavy at times by 10PM and possibly reaching 2 to 3 inches per hour after midnight and continuing like that for several hours. Rain should dissipate to showers toward morning, with more normal intensity showers continuing Wednesday morning before diminishing in the afternoon. Winds will also be increasin through the evening, peaking around 30 to 45 mph just after midnight before diminishing toward morning to more normal 15 to 25mph from the E to SE Wednesday morning.Total rainfall will be between 6 to 12 inches overnight Tuesday night. more normal trade wind weather will replace Calvin's stormy conditions late Wednesday through the coming weekend. Since there is a strong possiblity that winds may increase to 35 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 55mph over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, all loose objects should be secured or removed from outside the home. Any albezia trees or other loosely rooted or with damaged limbs that may impact your property should already be cut down. Heavy rainfall is expected beginning Tuesday night and coniinuing into Wednesday. This could cause Flash Flooding and ponding of water in all low-lying areas and may make roads impassable at times. Trees my be toppled by the wind and soft soil and may block roads, as well. Listen to all Emergency Managers through this period for updates and Warnings.
Waikoloa Forecast
The normal summer pattern of sunny morning skies over Waikoloa, with moderate to breezy downslope and offshore winds will continue on Tuesday, but sea beezes may be limited to the more immediate beaches and shoreline, with east to northeast downsloping winds increasing Tuesday as Calvin approaches. Overcast skies with periods of rain will follow Tuesday night, with only isolated areas of heavy rainfall, particularly upslope of Honoka`a, in Waimea and in some spots across the upper Waikoloa slopes, including Hualalai and vicinity. Rainfall will diminish Wednesday morning, all areas, with some clearing and winds diminishing through the day Wednesday. Waikoloa will see a return of the more normal summer pattern of sunny mornings, with some upslope afternoon cloudiness and isolated showers, leading to clear nighttime skies on Thursday and continuing into the coming weekend. Expect highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s during this period, from the resorts to Waikoloa Village... albeit a bit cooler during the afternoons at the beaches due to the sea brezes and over the upper Waikoloa slope due to cloud cover. Effects from Calvin, now a weakening tropical storm moving in our direction from about 800 miles ESE of Hilo, as described elsewhere in this forecast, will be felt late Tuesday into Wednesday on our island. In Waikoloa, winds may reach speeds of 35 to 50mph with gusts as high as 65mph Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which have the potential of moving loose objects and knocking down some varieties of trees. With the current track now taking the center of Calvin just south of South Point, confidence remains high that Calvin will likely bring Tropical Storm force winds to much of our island, along with torrential rainfall, especially along the Hamakua Waikoloa and North Kohala southward to some portions of Kailua Kona and South Kona may feel the worst of the strong and damaging winds, along with briefly heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms that make it over from the Hilo side or form in the lee of the mountains. Please take all necessary precautions, including stocking up on food, water and supplies and tying down or securing loose objects in preparation for a significant implact from Calvin in the next few days.
Hawaii Synopsis
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast today with wind speeds increasing from tonight into Tuesday night as Tropical Storm Calvin approaches the state. Calvin will likely move over of close to the Big Island from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then pass westward to the south of the smaller islands. Heavy rain and high surf will be some of the effects of this storm's passage. Breezy trade winds and more stable conditions will fill in behind Calvin on Thursday as it weakens and passes farther westward away from the islands.
Big Island Discussion
Satellite imagery this morning shows a weak low level trough passing just north of the island chain with some unstable clouds that will enhance shower activity mainly over windward and mountain areas of each island this morning. Tropical Storm Calvin located roughly 900 miles east of Hilo remains on a high confidence westward track into the Hawaiian Islands over the next three days.
Despite the latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, which shows Calvin continuing to weaken as it passes over cool waters, draws in more stable drier air, and encounters increasing vertical wind shear. weather and water impacts remain likely for the eastern half of the state, as Calvin approaches and moves past Hawaii Island late Tuesday into Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Big Island and surrounding coastal waters, with Tropical Storm impacts possible from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. A Flood Watch was also issued for the same time period. The potential for significant weather and water impacts from Calvin may extend far from the center of the Tropical Storm.
Two main factors that will limit our exposure to these weather and water impacts are: Tropical Storm Force winds are weakening as the storm approaches the state due to less favorable environmental conditions, and the forward speed of the system is fairly quick limiting the amount of time over our island. Strong winds and heavy rainfall potential will probably be limited to around 12 to 18 hours for any one location. The earliest reasonable arrival time for Tropical Storm force winds for the Big Island is around Tuesday evening.
Since the public and marine forecasts for Hawaii are highly dependent on the tropical cyclone bulletins issued at 11 am/pm and 5 am/pm HST, our regularly scheduled forecast issuances will be issued shortly after these bulletins are released.
Trade winds will fill by Thursday as Calvin weakens and passes westward away from the island chain.
Mahalo!
Bob Farrell