2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[Durian Fiend]

So, how about something more current?

https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/202...o-persist/

The forecasters are predicting a dryer than normal “rainy season” due to a strong El Nino.  I tend to agree because droughts at this time of year do tend to happen in El Nino years.  The longest drought I have seen here was 40 years ago during a strong El Nino event, and it was quite scary.  Fires everywhere.  

I’m not proposing a wager of any kind.  Just hoping that you will disagree…and be right.

Sorry, I agree that it will be drier than "normal".  That's almost certain, not only due to El Nino but also because this has been the general trend for Hawaii rainfall over the past 40 years-especially during the past 20 or so.

If you look at the current El Nino index, it's not presently a strong signal.  Seems like the more pronounced this condition, the greater are the chances for extremely dry weather.   So my hope is that it doesn't turn out to be a hazardously dry winter.

Here's a link with historical records.  https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm