04-22-2024, 12:31 AM
I'll bet that by next week the talking heads will be floating the idea of a rate increase. - tang
Well, we didn't even have to wait until next week. Better wear a chain mail glove if you are buying into this market...
'Hedge The Tails' - Goldman Sees Financial Conditions Tightening As Rate-HIKE Possibility Rises
SUNDAY, APR 21, 2024 - 10:20 AM
Authored by Rikin Shah and Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli via Goldman Sachs Global Banking ^ & Markets,
THE US ECONOMY CONTINUES TO PERFORM...
Core retail sales rising 1.1% in March strongly outperformed consensus and adds to the onslaught of strong US data on both the activity and inflation front.
GIR is now tracking 3.1% for Q1 GDP and the big question is, are current policy rates restrictive?
Non-farm payroll numbers continue to print far above estimated breakeven levels (even after adjusting for immigration), and optically lower YoY inflation readings on the back of supportive base effects have been offset by a combination of slowing progress on the rent/OER front and a re-acceleration in core services.
With an expected core PCE path that fails to fall sustainably below 2.5% this year, recent commodity price moves and growth arguably above potential, if one did not check the absolute level of policy rates it is not clear that the next policy adjustment would be a cut.
Well, we didn't even have to wait until next week. Better wear a chain mail glove if you are buying into this market...
'Hedge The Tails' - Goldman Sees Financial Conditions Tightening As Rate-HIKE Possibility Rises
SUNDAY, APR 21, 2024 - 10:20 AM
Authored by Rikin Shah and Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli via Goldman Sachs Global Banking ^ & Markets,
THE US ECONOMY CONTINUES TO PERFORM...
Core retail sales rising 1.1% in March strongly outperformed consensus and adds to the onslaught of strong US data on both the activity and inflation front.
GIR is now tracking 3.1% for Q1 GDP and the big question is, are current policy rates restrictive?
Non-farm payroll numbers continue to print far above estimated breakeven levels (even after adjusting for immigration), and optically lower YoY inflation readings on the back of supportive base effects have been offset by a combination of slowing progress on the rent/OER front and a re-acceleration in core services.
With an expected core PCE path that fails to fall sustainably below 2.5% this year, recent commodity price moves and growth arguably above potential, if one did not check the absolute level of policy rates it is not clear that the next policy adjustment would be a cut.