Yeah, Matson's stock getting hammered recently (earnings call next week) - unclear IMO how all the disruptions shake out (tangles in all shipping like you said, massive shifts in traffic to lower tariffed countries, or vast excess capacity - a luau buffet of problems to sample from while watching people in the spotlight try to juggle fire).
That Apollo analysis going around has lots of interesting graphs and a timeline on slide 4 that is attention grabbing:
April 2 - Liberation day tariffs: Container departures from China to the US slowing rapidly
... 20-40 days containership transit time ...
Early May/Mid May: Containerships to US ports come to a stop
... 1-10 days truck/rail transit time to cities ...
Mid May/Late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt
... Empty shelves and companies respond to lower sales ...
Late May/Early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industry
--> Summer 2025: Recession
It feels like there is some underlying hope/expectation floating about that this outcome won't happen as it can largely be averted with a single decision (unlike with 2020 or 2008). Who knows though? Politicians can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
As for stocking up, adding some extra of everything is never a bad idea, but even the deepest pantries only have so much shelf space. Need to get out and get those jicama in the ground. Hopefully kalianna will trade some apocalypse potatoes for low, but not ideal, CO2-eq goat milk if it all comes to that. :)
That Apollo analysis going around has lots of interesting graphs and a timeline on slide 4 that is attention grabbing:
April 2 - Liberation day tariffs: Container departures from China to the US slowing rapidly
... 20-40 days containership transit time ...
Early May/Mid May: Containerships to US ports come to a stop
... 1-10 days truck/rail transit time to cities ...
Mid May/Late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt
... Empty shelves and companies respond to lower sales ...
Late May/Early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industry
--> Summer 2025: Recession
It feels like there is some underlying hope/expectation floating about that this outcome won't happen as it can largely be averted with a single decision (unlike with 2020 or 2008). Who knows though? Politicians can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
As for stocking up, adding some extra of everything is never a bad idea, but even the deepest pantries only have so much shelf space. Need to get out and get those jicama in the ground. Hopefully kalianna will trade some apocalypse potatoes for low, but not ideal, CO2-eq goat milk if it all comes to that. :)