09-04-2025, 07:44 PM
(09-04-2025, 06:15 PM)ironyak Wrote: Mod2 - Harry started out posting here, but someone didn’t find his weather comments appropriate.
Hmm - would you look at that. While FB does accommodate images and video better (especially at that time), having to contend with Opihikaobob, pahoated, and TomK all at the same time would motivate anyone to consider other options regardless.
DF - Neither the GFS or ECMWF models currently running on Windy.com look great for us on Tuesday of next week.
That's the nice thing about having so many models to choose from - have plans for Tuesday and don't like the storm plowing into us (GEFS & ICON) or passing to the north (ECMWF) on that day? Can I offer you the Canadian GEPS model instead which has the storm passing to the south of us? Just pick the model that says what you want to hear, and if it turns out to be incorrect, blame Canada!
Opihikaobob- LOL.
Latest from Durgin 1 hour ago mentions that two models have now converged on one solution, and BTW they both show the storm nailing us.
"For the first time, both high-resolution HAFS-A and HAFS-B models show nearly identical forecasts for Hurricane Kiko. This convergence suggests the steering environment is now being interpreted similarly across these two models.
Both HAFS-A and HAFS-B are advanced hurricane forecast models that simulate how storms like Kiko will behave. They use the same basic setup but differ in how they handle the starting point of the storm. HAFS-B uses more real-time weather data—like satellite images and recent observations—to create a detailed picture of the storm’s current state, which can help make near-term forecasts more accurate. HAFS-A, on the other hand, uses a smoother, more idealized version of the storm at the start, which sometimes helps it perform better at longer timeframes. So, when the two models agree, it builds confidence in the forecast. When they differ, it's often because of how they "see" the storm at the beginning."