03-09-2008, 05:59 AM
A note here to steward the conversation before I get to work.
It is impossible to take on the task of attempting to live in an ecologically benign manner without a concise and coherent holistic view of the the earth, its systems, and its current state. The single greatest issue we face, clearly, at this date--an issue so awesome in magnitude that it dwarfs all other ecological issues, is global heating. The data is coming in fast, and most anything in print is out of date before it gets to press, and there is a tremendous effort being made to get a clear perspective of where we are going. And the trend, certainly, is towards greater and faster and more damaging change all the time.
Current conservative predictions:
1 degree F temperature rise every 5 years, with a likely accelerated spike in next 20 of perhaps 5 to 10 degrees. The spike is due to the fact that we're further along PAST the tipping point spoken of than we think--and the climate especially in the N. Hemisphere is about 3 to 5 degree C. artificially cool due to particulate emissions. As we start to clean up our act, and skies get clearer, we'll get an immediate bump. The evidence suggests strongly at this point that the sept 11 grounding of air traffic triggered a nationwide heat wave.
Progressive meaningful thoughtful scientists are arguing that we begin adding sulfur to jet fuel, to attempt to slow the progression, as the political will is really dragging.
We're in the high 390's ppm CO2 at this point, we're adding about 4 ppm a year at our current global rate of consumption. If we get destabilizing events, like a large volcanic eruption in the right place, or MORE eruptions of Methane Clathrates, as now several have now been documented along the Oregon Washington California coast, the whole game is over.
The last time the earth was this warm, in the late Eocene, for reasons we don't know but it is speculated methane clathrates were the key, the earth was about 20 degrees F warmer near the poles and about 12 in the tropics. This triggered large extinctions and it took roughly 250000 years for the earth systems to recover. And it took that long, in spite of the fact that the sun was about .5 percent cooler, and the planet itself was in a pristine natural state. At this point, our best estimates indicate that fully 50 percent of the forested areas that may have existed then are now today dominated by cropland, and the planet itself is in a much less robust state to begin to recover. Sea levels were between 100 and 150 feet higher.
I believe, personally, that our goose is cooked. The discussions we're having about sustainability may have meant something 50 years or so ago, but today is more or less lipstick on a corpse. Even among those who call themselves ecologists, there is very very little evidence of any attempt to move towards a truly sustainable level of personal consumption. And, indeed, it isn't easy to do--as with the population of the world as it is, sustainable really means one thing: impoverished. And of course by that observation, the vast majority of the human beings already live that way. Global GDP is more or less 2000 dollars, and anyone living on more than that, frankly, is using more than their fair share of the earth's resources.
In my mind, in this context, the issue is far more one of simple survival than anything else.
Sorry to be grim. Ultimately I'm optimistic, because a pessimist doesn't plant trees. I'd like to have a hand it preserving as much of what is beautiful of the natural world and that which is elegant of human civilisation as possible--this is really my goal.
I hope that these thoughts clarify what I'd like to point of this conversation to be.
It is impossible to take on the task of attempting to live in an ecologically benign manner without a concise and coherent holistic view of the the earth, its systems, and its current state. The single greatest issue we face, clearly, at this date--an issue so awesome in magnitude that it dwarfs all other ecological issues, is global heating. The data is coming in fast, and most anything in print is out of date before it gets to press, and there is a tremendous effort being made to get a clear perspective of where we are going. And the trend, certainly, is towards greater and faster and more damaging change all the time.
Current conservative predictions:
1 degree F temperature rise every 5 years, with a likely accelerated spike in next 20 of perhaps 5 to 10 degrees. The spike is due to the fact that we're further along PAST the tipping point spoken of than we think--and the climate especially in the N. Hemisphere is about 3 to 5 degree C. artificially cool due to particulate emissions. As we start to clean up our act, and skies get clearer, we'll get an immediate bump. The evidence suggests strongly at this point that the sept 11 grounding of air traffic triggered a nationwide heat wave.
Progressive meaningful thoughtful scientists are arguing that we begin adding sulfur to jet fuel, to attempt to slow the progression, as the political will is really dragging.
We're in the high 390's ppm CO2 at this point, we're adding about 4 ppm a year at our current global rate of consumption. If we get destabilizing events, like a large volcanic eruption in the right place, or MORE eruptions of Methane Clathrates, as now several have now been documented along the Oregon Washington California coast, the whole game is over.
The last time the earth was this warm, in the late Eocene, for reasons we don't know but it is speculated methane clathrates were the key, the earth was about 20 degrees F warmer near the poles and about 12 in the tropics. This triggered large extinctions and it took roughly 250000 years for the earth systems to recover. And it took that long, in spite of the fact that the sun was about .5 percent cooler, and the planet itself was in a pristine natural state. At this point, our best estimates indicate that fully 50 percent of the forested areas that may have existed then are now today dominated by cropland, and the planet itself is in a much less robust state to begin to recover. Sea levels were between 100 and 150 feet higher.
I believe, personally, that our goose is cooked. The discussions we're having about sustainability may have meant something 50 years or so ago, but today is more or less lipstick on a corpse. Even among those who call themselves ecologists, there is very very little evidence of any attempt to move towards a truly sustainable level of personal consumption. And, indeed, it isn't easy to do--as with the population of the world as it is, sustainable really means one thing: impoverished. And of course by that observation, the vast majority of the human beings already live that way. Global GDP is more or less 2000 dollars, and anyone living on more than that, frankly, is using more than their fair share of the earth's resources.
In my mind, in this context, the issue is far more one of simple survival than anything else.
Sorry to be grim. Ultimately I'm optimistic, because a pessimist doesn't plant trees. I'd like to have a hand it preserving as much of what is beautiful of the natural world and that which is elegant of human civilisation as possible--this is really my goal.
I hope that these thoughts clarify what I'd like to point of this conversation to be.