09-22-2008, 12:05 PM
Actually, all the real pros do time the market, and do so consistently. They want to talk everyone else out of it because it makes snapping up the cheap buys much more difficult.
I've never had much money, but I've always been involved in investment/speculation and it's always done very very well for me. God, if I hadn't been born a hick kid! and got to start out with, um, maybe 10000 bucks? Ah well. I sold out completely a year or so ago and missed the market peak by 4 days. Not to be a snot, but you can know. It simply takes a great deal of commitment. As well, those who know me know I'm the kind of guy that gets up at 5:30 and does two hours of research before I go pound nails. Not everyone is like that or that, well, retentive? I live in an off-grid 250 square foot cabin run on biomass and dabble in forex.
At this point, step away from the table. We are in a moment of uncertainty. Uncertainty is not risk. Risk is calculable. Uncertainty is not. Risk may be like playing roulette, where you know you're 4 percent(typically) to the negative, but you play anyhow for free drinks. Uncertainty is playing roulette when they don't let you see the wheel, and there's a fair chance the casino will burn down in the mean time and everyone will run screaming in flames for the doors. . .in other words, there is no sensible way to calculate the risk.
I think we're at least 20 percent from the bottom in most markets in real estate, and 40 in others that were overpriced. I don't believe there will ever be a recovery. I mean, I don't believe there will ever be a recovery. Why? The only way real estate prices got to where they were was by giving houses to people, by frankly fraudulent means, who were patently unable to carry the debt service. The only way to get the real estate values to recover is to create millions of people who can afford million dollar homes, and are stupid enough to buy them. Fat chance. The other MAJOR issue is that the vast majority of home owners with equity in their homes, the baby boomers, at this moment want to dump them. Their kids, on the other hand, haven't the money to buy them. It takes very little or sophisticated math to figure where this will go.
The real issue isn't subprime mortgages, it's sub prime incomes in a chronically subprime economy. The only way there has been any growth at all for the last 15 years has been the expansion of bogus credit.
The biggest problem with this trillion dollar bailout that Paulson wants is that it isn't big enough to do any good. I expect the real price tag to be 5 to 10 times higher. There's 2 trillion dollars of bad home equity loans out there! Leveraged against what?
This is why I'd like to invest in taro hulis, please! As well, I believe there are massively valuable opportunities out there, but one will need to live well ahead of the curve and herd to catch them. . .and as everyone runs faster, well, you get the point.
I've never had much money, but I've always been involved in investment/speculation and it's always done very very well for me. God, if I hadn't been born a hick kid! and got to start out with, um, maybe 10000 bucks? Ah well. I sold out completely a year or so ago and missed the market peak by 4 days. Not to be a snot, but you can know. It simply takes a great deal of commitment. As well, those who know me know I'm the kind of guy that gets up at 5:30 and does two hours of research before I go pound nails. Not everyone is like that or that, well, retentive? I live in an off-grid 250 square foot cabin run on biomass and dabble in forex.
At this point, step away from the table. We are in a moment of uncertainty. Uncertainty is not risk. Risk is calculable. Uncertainty is not. Risk may be like playing roulette, where you know you're 4 percent(typically) to the negative, but you play anyhow for free drinks. Uncertainty is playing roulette when they don't let you see the wheel, and there's a fair chance the casino will burn down in the mean time and everyone will run screaming in flames for the doors. . .in other words, there is no sensible way to calculate the risk.
I think we're at least 20 percent from the bottom in most markets in real estate, and 40 in others that were overpriced. I don't believe there will ever be a recovery. I mean, I don't believe there will ever be a recovery. Why? The only way real estate prices got to where they were was by giving houses to people, by frankly fraudulent means, who were patently unable to carry the debt service. The only way to get the real estate values to recover is to create millions of people who can afford million dollar homes, and are stupid enough to buy them. Fat chance. The other MAJOR issue is that the vast majority of home owners with equity in their homes, the baby boomers, at this moment want to dump them. Their kids, on the other hand, haven't the money to buy them. It takes very little or sophisticated math to figure where this will go.
The real issue isn't subprime mortgages, it's sub prime incomes in a chronically subprime economy. The only way there has been any growth at all for the last 15 years has been the expansion of bogus credit.
The biggest problem with this trillion dollar bailout that Paulson wants is that it isn't big enough to do any good. I expect the real price tag to be 5 to 10 times higher. There's 2 trillion dollars of bad home equity loans out there! Leveraged against what?
This is why I'd like to invest in taro hulis, please! As well, I believe there are massively valuable opportunities out there, but one will need to live well ahead of the curve and herd to catch them. . .and as everyone runs faster, well, you get the point.