There are now 19 brand new homes for sale in HPP.

[Durian Fiend]

This is the part I found concerning with regard to HPP home values because a good number of them are FHA loans...

How do you know that?   The temporary postponement of payments is just that-only temporary for 180-360 days.  Eventually these folks have to pay up or they will be foreclosed on.  So if the program is eventually cancelled I don't see why this would be a major factor in a housing crash either nationally or locally.

BTW, I found this interesting tidbit:  

• "The five states with the largest quarterly increases in their overall delinquency rate were: Florida (99 basis points), South Carolina (59 basis points), North Carolina (40 basis points), Georgia (39 basis points), and Louisiana (32 basis points)" 
  
•  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/ne...er-of-2024
  

[Punatang]

How do you know that?

I pay a lot of attention and have developed that knowledge via discussions with numerous real estate professionals who focus on HPP and numerous friends who live there and have FHA loans.  Do you think that I am wrong that a good number of HPP home loans are guaranteed by The FHA?

 

So if the program is eventually cancelled I don't see why this would be a major factor in a housing crash either nationally or locally.

Are you saying that you don't understand how a large uptick in foreclosures would be a major factor affecting property values?



BTW, I found this interesting tidbit:  "The five states with the largest quarterly increases in their overall delinquency rate were: Florida (99 basis points), South Carolina (59 basis points), North Carolina (40 basis points), Georgia (39 basis points), and Louisiana (32 basis points)" 

Why do you find that interesting and can you help me understand how it relates to HPP or Puna?

ETA:  BTW Durian Fiend, thank you for the excellent link which really serves to corroborate the relevant point made by the nice young lady at the Wall Street Journal and the gentleman from the center-right think tank by pointing out that FHA loans are increasing in delinquency relative to both conventional and VA loans.  Worrying information indeed.  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/ne...er-of-2024

[Durian Fiend]

How do you know that?

I pay a lot of attention and have developed that knowledge via discussions with numerous real estate professionals who focus on HPP and numerous friends who live there and have FHA loans.  Do you think that I am wrong that a good number of HPP home loans are guaranteed by The FHA?

 

So if the program is eventually cancelled I don't see why this would be a major factor in a housing crash either nationally or locally.

Are you saying that you don't understand how a large uptick in foreclosures would be a major factor affecting property values?



BTW, I found this interesting tidbit:  "The five states with the largest quarterly increases in their overall delinquency rate were: Florida (99 basis points), South Carolina (59 basis points), North Carolina (40 basis points), Georgia (39 basis points), and Louisiana (32 basis points)" 

Why do you find that interesting and can you help me understand how it relates to HPP or Puna?

ETA:  BTW Durian Fiend, thank you for the excellent link which really serves to corroborate the relevant point made by the nice young lady at the Wall Street Journal and the gentleman from the center-right think tank by pointing out that FHA loans are increasing in delinquency relative to both conventional and VA loans.  Worrying information indeed.  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/ne...er-of-2024

I was curious about how you would know a lot of HPP loans are FHA.  No knowledge about this on my part.

I'm saying that a cancellation of that program doesn't appear to me that it would significantly effect foreclosure rates. 

What's interesting about that list is that Hawaii is not on it. See how that relates? Also, they're all red states, so your speculated move wouldn't be popular with the current administration's constituents.

BTW, the national association of realtors believes home prices will continue to rise modestly in 2025.  They rose 6% in December of 2024.  Of course, with the erratic direction of government policy lately at the national level, this could be subject to change.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

UBelow is the chart from Punatang’s mba link.  If you look over the 20 year history of loan defaults, you’ll see FHA and conventional home loans follow a similar line, rising and falling in parallel.  Occasionally for short periods of time (like now?) FHA will rise slightly higher in comparison.  But other than 2008 there was not a housing market crash in HPP.

FHA loans will probably always have a higher default rate as the program was designed to provide loans to people who can’t get a conventional loan.  The idea being that America is better off with more home owners.  Home owners take better care of their property than renters in general.  

Otherwise the plutocrats and oligarchs will own even more than the do now, as well as the banks that we go begging to, hat in hand for our loans.  But sure, let’s give them even more money.


   

[Punatang]

Good points Durian Fiend and Edge. I hope you are right and I agree that FHA is a program that has helped many including yours truly many years ago. Edge do you still think Puna is turning into a pig iron?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Edge do you still think Puna is turning into a pig iron?

?

(I hope not.  Imagine the rust!)

[terracore]

"What's interesting about that list is that Hawaii is not on it."

Hawaii, the Big Island in particular, is unique because so many properties qualify for USDA loans that aren't available in most places.

FHA loans have low down payments, but they still require the buyer to have a down payment. USDA loans are zero-down loans. Hawaii might not be on that FHA list because people are opting for the zero-down USDA loan option which might not be available to places on that list. (I didn't look at the list so this is just conjecture).

Despite it's name, the USDA home loan program doesn't have anything directly related to agriculture. Anybody who lives in an eligible area and meets the income requirements can apply for one.