03-07-2020, 06:07 PM
Thought it would be interesting to get some Punaweb perspectives how the events playing out currently will end up impacting us here in Hawaii. As we've already seen hints of some major effects, it seems hard to believe that we're going to come out unscathed.
In my crystal ball, it appears that the 2008 financial meltdown is an apt starting point. With China's manufacturing shut down for an extended period, and the supply chains of thousands of companies impacted, it seems a global recession is very likely, tied to a large pull back in the stock market. This will lead to a loss in jobs and wages, which means less tourism (compounded by fears of airplane and cruise ship travel) and a drop in home values (due to excess inventory & weak demand, regardless of the Fed's QE efforts in dropping interest rates), which means severe budget shortfalls in Hawaii.
This would lead to a decrease in government services here (think furlough Fridays and more). The lack of stable income and job opportunities may exacerbate social unrest and lead to an significant uptick in crime coupled with a lack of law enforcement (yes, even less than usual).
The rapid decoupling from China that started with the trade war, and is being extended now, will cause an increase in consumer prices, which will lower consumption even further, and help fuel the recession. Those who've come to depend on Walmart for their cheap goods will be hit hardest.
This isn't even considering the psychological effects that may follow from a break down in the healthcare system and the tens-of-thousands possible deaths in this state alone. Nor does it consider the real possibility of armed conflict (Iran/Israel?) that may result from the geo-political instability (e.g. China is currently engaged in a propaganda campaign to blame the outbreak on the U.S.), which Hawaii's military positioning will play a role in. And all this during an election year!
tl;dr - things are going to get quite bumpy soon, both economically and socially. Think 2008 + 9/11. Other thoughts?
In my crystal ball, it appears that the 2008 financial meltdown is an apt starting point. With China's manufacturing shut down for an extended period, and the supply chains of thousands of companies impacted, it seems a global recession is very likely, tied to a large pull back in the stock market. This will lead to a loss in jobs and wages, which means less tourism (compounded by fears of airplane and cruise ship travel) and a drop in home values (due to excess inventory & weak demand, regardless of the Fed's QE efforts in dropping interest rates), which means severe budget shortfalls in Hawaii.
This would lead to a decrease in government services here (think furlough Fridays and more). The lack of stable income and job opportunities may exacerbate social unrest and lead to an significant uptick in crime coupled with a lack of law enforcement (yes, even less than usual).
The rapid decoupling from China that started with the trade war, and is being extended now, will cause an increase in consumer prices, which will lower consumption even further, and help fuel the recession. Those who've come to depend on Walmart for their cheap goods will be hit hardest.
This isn't even considering the psychological effects that may follow from a break down in the healthcare system and the tens-of-thousands possible deaths in this state alone. Nor does it consider the real possibility of armed conflict (Iran/Israel?) that may result from the geo-political instability (e.g. China is currently engaged in a propaganda campaign to blame the outbreak on the U.S.), which Hawaii's military positioning will play a role in. And all this during an election year!
tl;dr - things are going to get quite bumpy soon, both economically and socially. Think 2008 + 9/11. Other thoughts?
