NIH urges Americans to take COVID-19 seriously now

[Guest]

Will they be criminally liable..

Haven't you noticed, politicians are exempt from liability..

[knieft]

Ironyak: Sure, I guess only twice as many people dying as usual (based on the low estimates) is no big deal. Dust bin of history and all that?

Ignored from my post: except that a significant percentage of those with pre-existing health conditions who succumb to coronavirus would be in the normal death rate anyway.

The more I think about it, a significant percentage could be very high. Not that the more I think about it means much.

HotPE: It is also possible to wash hands regularly & keep a safe distance from crowds without fear or panic. The best of both worlds (given our present reality)?

Sounds good to me. Indeed, I said: Of course, I will do what I can to flatten the curve and be a team player.

What is amazing to me is that this virus affects the very young so much less. Seems to me that most bugs hit the very young and very old disproportionately. And this one only hits the oldsters (and pre-existers) disproportionately. Silver lining?

rainyjim wondering why the death rate math is so important resonates with me as well. Time will tell. Less so calculators.

Cheers,
Kirt

[ironyak]

Ignored from my post: except that a significant percentage of those with pre-existing health conditions who succumb to coronavirus would be in the normal death rate anyway.

Not ignored (maybe glossed over but while there would likely be some overlap, there is no way to know the extent. Some of those 2.5 million deaths would not be redundant with the flu (cancer, accidental injury, & Alzheimers for instance).

The math matters as that is what separates this from flu in every possible measure. While only time will tell for sure, but some are already learning these bitter calculations.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/i...33285.html

[Guest]

This, of all the threads, seems to be the best for the science behind the crisis..

From: https://sunnybrook.ca/research/media/item.asp?c=2&i=2069&f=covid-19-isolated-2020

Research team has isolated the COVID-19 virus

A team of researchers from Sunnybrook, McMaster University and the University of Toronto has isolated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the agent responsible for the ongoing outbreak of COVID-19.

Thanks to nimble collaboration, the team was able to culture the virus from two clinical specimens in a Level 3 containment facility.

“We need key tools to develop solutions to this pandemic. While the immediate response is crucial, longer-term solutions come from essential research into this novel virus,” said Dr. Samira Mubareka, microbiologist and infectious diseases physician at Sunnybrook...

More at the link above...

[Guest]

More science:

From: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/peop...ry-begins/

People ‘shed’ high levels of coronavirus, study finds, but most are likely not infectious after recovery begins

People who contract the novel coronavirus emit high amounts of virus very early on in their infection, according to a new study from Germany that helps to explain the rapid and efficient way in which the virus has spread around the world.

At the same time, the study suggests that while people with mild infections can still test positive by throat swabs for days and even weeks after their illness, those who are only mildly sick are likely not still infectious by about 10 days after they start to experience symptoms.

The study, by scientists in Berlin and Munich, is one of the first outside China to look at clinical data from patients who have been diagnosed with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and one of the first to try to map when people infected with the virus can infect others.

It was published Monday on a preprint server, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed, but it could still provide key information that the public health response has been lacking...

More at the link above...

[knieft]

quote:

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Originally posted by ironyak

Ignored from my post: except that a significant percentage of those with pre-existing health conditions who succumb to coronavirus would be in the normal death rate anyway.

Not ignored (maybe glossed over but while there would likely be some overlap, there is no way to know the extent. Some of those 2.5 million deaths would not be redundant with the flu (cancer, accidental injury, & Alzheimers for instance).

The math matters as that is what separates this from flu in every possible measure. While only time will tell for sure, but some are already learning these bitter calculations.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/i...33285.html

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No way to know the extent? I agree, but “some overlap” might be minimizing the extent. I don’t see how cancer should be dismissed. Accidental injury, ok. Alzheimer’s ok.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

The math may well be in retrospect, showing the range/accuracy of all these estimates in reality. The point is, what does it matter about predictions on mathematical models. The “advice” would be the same.

I don’t get the aljazeera link. That people are dying? Of course. How does fetishizing mathematical predictions change what will happen?

OK, it’s different from the flu. It’s different from smallpox. It is what it is. They aren’t learning from bitter calculations, they are dying from a combination of an aging immune system, pre-existing conditions, and bad luck with a virus.

There is no way to know the extent of how many corona deaths occur in folks with troubles that would have lead to their death in a month, a year, or longer? I would think math would help come up with something on that...? Assuming the event runs its course without significant replay, perhaps the normal death rate would drop significantly because it was “pressured” or “compressed” by corona. Math might predict that.

I won’t bring up your math on the negative percentage of Hawaii population testing (oops) except to say that I hope you keep posting since you are a great resource on PunaWeb in these times of crisis, lava and virus. Sincerely.

FWIW, I will be arguing ten days from now (locally) for school closure, though that is likely way to late to make any difference in the outcome, excepting hopefully flattening the curve.

I wanna flatten that brotherfighting motherhating curve!

Cheers,
Kirt

[knieft]

quote:

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Originally posted by ironyak

To put it in pop culture terms, the flapping of a butterfly's wings does change the weather, but in this case the butterfly gets to decide how.

Compare South Korea (low mortality, social stability, & tech innovations) to Iran (political instability, rioting, & mass graves) and figure out which COVID-19 outcome you want to be a part of?

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I am not a butterfly. I am a snowflake. (Woke or not, I won’t tell.)

Nevertheless, I can’t choose how this plays out in the USA or Puna. What were you thinking when posting this? Some sort of twitter thing? I have to assume there is more to it than it appears.

Cheers,
Kirt

I can play nice to flatten the curve

[ironyak]

negative percentage of Hawaii population testing (oops)

Please feel free to point this out - I'm too tired to try and interpret and hunt it down (although I think it might be that testing 250 people a week does not even keep up with the 350 new births each week?)

I don’t get the aljazeera link. That people are dying? Of course. How does fetishizing mathematical predictions change what will happen?

If people understand what 10x more deadly than the flu means they might actually consider taking the steps necessary to prevent many of these deaths. Math tells you where things are headed so you can take steps to bend the curve, change the path, improve the outcome. The advise might be the same but who would consider upending their entire way of life without any evidence given for why?

I can’t choose how this plays out in the USA or Puna
Your actions directly influence the outcomes, especially locally. By not going shopping, drinking, eating, movie watching, and every other frivilous public activity you are helping to not transmit this virus to many others. Small reductions in mixing of people have large differences in the final death tolls.

To not even bother to try is indulging in fatalism at the expense of other people's lives.

I will be arguing ten days from now (locally) for school closure

Makes a lot of sense given the hundreds of public school closures on the mainland in response to COVID-19. Has anyone heard what the Department of Education's plans are?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Has anyone heard what the Department of Education's plans are?

So far only this:

As such, HIDOE is canceling all school and Department-related travel to the U.S. mainland and international destinations until the end of the 2019-2020 school year, effective March 12.

But they are monitoring the situation.

[Guest]

Your actions directly influence the outcomes, especially locally. By not going shopping, drinking, eating, movie watching, and every other frivilous public activity...

Roger Waters wrote a song about just that...

https://youtu.be/tFPvl7aDN6A