There are now 20 brand new homes for sale in HPP.

[Punatang]

Has this ever happened before? Is that normal? You can confirm it on Redfin, Zillow or below at Realtor.com. There are 26 32 34 33 34 33 34 32 33 30 31 27 26 27 26 24 25 23 24 26 27 24 21 23 20 brand new homes on the market in Hawaiian Paradise Park. 

Does anyone have any theories?  $475,000 is the cheapest and $850,000 is the most expensive asking price.  The smallest two are 1246 square feet and they want $649,000!, and $475,000.  The largest three are 2314 square feet and they range from $698,000 to $850,000.    One just came on the market today and the oldest has been on the market for 241 days.  The lowest Price per square foot is $302. The highest price per square foot is $521 and that one has a very nice carport in the photos. That one just came on the market. Hope the developer knows how to leave his/her/etc. slippers in line. 

None of the listings brag about who the builder is.  Who are the builders?  Are they builders or are they developers?  Any help making any sense of this is appreciated.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhom...hide/sby-7


ETA (8/21/24):  the last house mentioned in the post above, with the highest price per square foot, went through several price reductions and was ultimately removed from the market.  The "blue roof" house on 4th.  They took their slippers out of the line...

[terracore]

It's not just HPP. There's a bunch for sale in Ainaloa, Orchidland, and some in Hawaiian Acres (and more on the way). Most of these homes were built on the correct properties!

Although the homes look very similar in build and appearance, it's not all the same developer.

There's a bunch of reasons why things got this way. After the Leilani eruption there was a call out for developers to build and then COVID hit and mainlanders bought up all the inventory in an already tight market. Developers from Oahu and Maui were drawn by the "cheap" land prices and started building these cookie cutter homes with higher end finishes and they were selling for asking price. With the fresh dopamine hits the easy money was giving them they put development into overdrive but then everything hit a snag: high mortgage interest rates. Sales slowed but they continued- even in the high interest environment people were still moving here from the mainland and the other islands, often times paying cash after selling their homes in hotter markets. But then another snag- the insurers for LZ2 pulled out putting a lot of downward pressure on prices there. People want to move out of LZ2 and buy these new homes in LZ3, but they can't sell their homes in LZ2. Meanwhile there are price drops on brand new construction every couple of days, making the newer (but not brand new) homes harder to sell.

Some of the land lots that were purchased for construction were sight unseen. I've seen a few that were built right next to rooster farms. And for some reason, nobody wants to live next to one! I saw one next to a rooster farm that had separate living areas with the garage in between them. Sounds great, right? But there were no doors in the garage to access either of the living spaces. And there was only one kitchen. So how do the people living on the other side of the garage get food? Easy- leave their front door, go outside, enjoy the roosters, and go in the other front door.

[Punatang]

Meanwhile there are price drops on brand new construction every couple of days, making the newer (but not brand new) homes harder to sell. - tc

Genuine mahalo for the insights!  The "price drops" you mention...is that for to be built?  IOW price drops from potential contractors?  Thanks again.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

The same thing happened between 2005-2008.
Prices increased, spec homes were built when developers saw $ signs, the housing market crashed (this time isn’t a crash) and houses sat empty for years, or became rental properties.

There was one month back then when the lowest listed vacant lot in HPP was $100,000. Then when the banks, housing, stock market collapsed, spec prices all disappeared.

[terracore]

" The "price drops" you mention...is that for to be built? IOW price drops from potential contractors? "

They start out listing the homes at the very top of what the market can bear. In the beginning, that worked out for them. But now the inventory of unsold homes is way too high, so they drop the price on a regular schedule.

Price drops do two things- First and most obvious is that lowering the price potentially increases the number of people who can afford the home. They make less profit but some profit is better than none. Second is that when the price of a home on the market changes, it puts that house back on the top of the list on all the realty sites like Zillow etc. So it briefly increases exposure to the market similar to being a new listing. If somebody views a home on one of those sites and the price drops, the site will email the users so it gets the house on people's screens again.

[Punatang]

 (this time isn’t a crash) - edge

Much mahalo Edge for your take and the history. I have no reason to doubt you about the above and if true, I suppose it's a releif.  I am curious as to your reasoning if you would be so kind to share.  You seem very sure and the only thing that I really know, is that I really don't know. Mahalo.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

the only thing that I really know, is that I really don't know.

Yes, that’s for sure.
I probably should have said it’s not a crash yet, or not at crash at this time.  But anything can happen.  I follow the markets, and if I had to take a guess at the future it looks generally positive.  (Not last Friday or today though!)

[Kiana]

"Some of the land lots that were purchased for construction were sight unseen. I've seen a few that were built right next to rooster farms. "

Fall of 2022 one of these developer homes sold next door to us in HPP, at the height of the crazy prices. I believe they paid $650k. Nice enough cookie cutter home built towards the front, zero landscaping as most of them. A younger (mid-30s or so) local family from Oahu bought it, cashed out on their simple home over there for over $900k. Adorable, sweet, well mannered children. He fenced the acre.

One day soon after we heard a rooster over there. We asked him about it, and told him how loud and bothersome it was. (Our home is built deep back on our lot, so next to his back yard.) He told us he was going to be "raising chickens". (I learned since that the farmers say this, not "raising roosters".)  Never did we imagine a rooster farmer would be buying that house next door for $650k.

Long story, it's been a year and a half and indeed we have a f*!#** rooster farm next door. We've talked to him a couple of times, to try to get them moved further away from our house (like outside our bedroom window), as he has a whole acre. But, nothing. Our back deck was our outdoor living area. We haven't used it but a couple of times in a year and a half. We will never again watch the sunrise, listening to the songbirds greet the day. Quality of life so hugely altered.

But hey, we know, you take that risk anywhere in Ag Zoning, and hey, roosters and cock fighting are a local thing part of the local history blah, blah, etc. 

Long story ending.... watch out for the Oahu residents also coming to cheaper Puna. Hope this never happens to any of you dear Punawebbers. If you have an empty lot next door, buy it. :-)

[ChunksterK]

In spite of the new homes coming on the market, I received two recent market reports from reputable companies indicating that inventory for sale in HPP is about half of demand and the days on the market number in the 96749 zip has fallen to 23. Don't be surprised if some of those smallest new homes fall to $450K, a number described as affordable to at least some local buyers and below which there are only a handful of financeable properties in HPP.

[Punatang]

If somebody views a home on one of those sites and the price drops, the site will email the users so it gets the house on people's screens again.  -tc

LOL, as if on que (maybe they read your post) and as I was reading your post I, received an email about one of said houses making a 5k price drop which going from 799k, probably does nothing more than put it back on the radar.

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I follow the markets, and if I had to take a guess at the future it looks generally positive. - edge

Likewise and my normalcy bias wants me to agree wholeheartedly.  Seems like so much if it is up to The Fed, CPI, PPI, QE, QT, Repo markets, fake job reports that get revised bigly every month after the juice is drunk, blah, blah, blah.  

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Long story, it's been a year and a half and indeed we have a f*!#** rooster farm next door. - Kiana

That is heartbreaking when your Paradise Park turns into a Poultry Phactory. Yesterday I drove by the chicken farm on the highway with the big "Dells" sign and there is a brand new house being built next door and I had to wonder.  I guess if you are building a house on the highway you didn't come for the peace anyway.  I'm bummed for you and hope you find a good remedy.

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In spite of the new  homes coming on the market, I received two recent market reports from reputable companies indicating that inventory for sale in HPP is about half of demand and the days on the market number in the 96749 zip has fallen to 23.  Don't be surprised if some of those smallest new homes fall to $450K, a number described as affordable to at least some local buyers and below which there are only a handful of financeable properties in HPP.

There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics.  Seems like those folks might want you to list their home with them.

There are 120 houses on the market in HPP today and more coming on the market every day. There are very very very few going under contract. Your reputable Realtors would have us believe 120 houses are going to sell in HPP in just over 3 weeks? Ich glaube nicht.