There are now 20 brand new homes for sale in HPP.

[Punatang]

12 of the 91 resale homes have made price drops

Mahalo for the info.  Hard to be sure without a link or reference but it appears that  the Realtor.com report may have included the New Homes in what you are calling the "resale homes" in which case 32 of the 91 have made price drops in May.  Are we talking about HPP or 96749? 

Even so, I agree that the folks with empty new homes to sell for a living, are being much more aggressive than the mom and pops, in trying to move their product.  Much of that may be related to being stuck as terracore has eluded to.

As you point out, the builders are clearly being more nimble on the prices. They can. That may be why half of the meager number of overall sales (13)  in HPP in the last 30 days have been New Homes. The resellers in many cases just are not in a position to lower their price any further and the market has passed them by on it's way down.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/recently_so...A%7B%7D%7D

[HiloJulie]

I’d be interested to know is how many of the “resale” houses are being sold by the owners for conventional reasons, such as job transfer, or to move to a new home or whatever versus how many are in bank foreclosure?

That would be an interesting statistic.

[Punatang]

Aha. Thanks for the clarification. Then it has become clear that your numbers most likely include empty lots.  Is that a good guess?  I made that same error in one of my early posts on this subject.  Easy to do.

Sorry I'm just guessing.  It's all we can do without any evidence.

If there are 123 homes for sale in HPP, then things are much more dire than I thought...

[ChunksterK]

Aha. Thanks for the clarification. Then it has become clear that your numbers most likely include empty lots.  Is that a good guess?  I made that same error in one of my early posts on this subject.  Easy to do.

Sorry I'm just guessing.  It's all we can do without any evidence.

If there are 123 homes for sale in HPP, then things are much more dire than I thought...

I need to sincerely apologize for posting inaccurate information.  The filter settings on realtor.com I used for the now deleted earlier numbers did not exclude contingent sales of existing (resale) homes, but did exclude contingent new construction.  Very unfair and inaccurate comparison.  The actual total number of non-contingent homes for sale in HPP is 87, with 55 being existing (resale) and 32 new construction.  Of the 55 available resales, 10 or 18% have reduced prices, while 14 or 43.7% of the 32 new construction houses are reduced.

For the sake of clarity, three of the resale homes I included are foreclosures which appear to be in habitable condition, although some repairs would likely be desireable on two of them.  One foreclosure actually looks almost new if the photos are accurate.

Again, I apologize for my previous mistake.

[Punatang]

Thank you for clearing that up Herr Chunkster.  I sincerely apologize for constantly guessing wrong.  I do see that on Realtor.com you have to select "hide pending/contingent" in order to get an accurate count of actives.

Thanks for bringing realtor.com to the discussion.  At first blush, it looks like their tools are more robust than zillow or redfin.  

Well I'm glad we got that sorted.  87 homes for sale in HPP is quite enough!

I think the contrast in the % of reductions is a combination of builders swinging for the fence and resellers having much less latitude and/or motivation to drop their prices.

What is fascinating, that realtor.com does is let you group all of the price reduced properties.  The really interesting % is that nearly half of all of the 85 non foreclosure, active listings in HPP have recently reduced their price.  Imagine that happening a year ago.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhom...hide/sby-7

With 13 closings in the last 30 days and 87 homes active on the market, that implies a 6.7 month supply of homes currently on the market in HPP.  (87/13=6.7 months)

Crazy.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

HPP lots started out at $795, taxes were $1.13 a year.  But that 6% interest on a loan was a killer:

One of the first lots that I bought was in Block 10, it was $545.00 or something like that. I think it was $85 down and $15 a month at 6%. In those days that wiped me out just to make a down payment, and to try to keep up the payments was something! It’s a funny thing in those days it wasn’t as easy to sell lots at $795 

https://www.hppoa.net/general-informatio...dise-park/

[My 2 cents]

During the last crash I knew a couple who lost their home to foreclosure, but the bank let them continue living in the house, rent and mortgage free, to protect their interest.  I heard that this was not uncommon and I believed it because it made sense.  Obviously this arrangement didn’t last forever, but during the hard times it was a win win.  (Was this an early example of “you will own nothing and be happy”?  I digress…)

There were a lot of foreclosures last time and many of them were due to people simply walking away.  When the house’s value dropped to well below the amount owed it made more sense to just let the bank have it.  The current interest rate situation might make some people want to continue paying on the house they bought to live in and ride it out, but the speculators are in a different boat.  If they can’t at least break even they might as well just let it go.  I don't know what the banks do to protect their assets in these cases.

We’re not at that point yet but I believe we will get there.

[Punatang]

During the last crash 

The people with the most data at hand and with their fingers on the levers, always let us know when the end of a bubble has arrived. They do it with irresponsible and predatory practices that lure the most vulnerable and least sophisticated "investors" into the marketplace.  Anything to keep the bubble going. It never fails and it's always the most accurate indicator we have because it can not be fudged or spun. It is a feature of pyramid schemes and bubbles. Someone has to be left holding the bag.

https://kessler-prod.reta52d8.eas.mornin...-the-catch

One of the biggest U.S. lenders is offering 0%-down-payment mortgages for first-time home buyers. Here's the catch.

UWM (UWMC) will give eligible buyers a second-lien loan of up to $15,000, in the form of down-payment assistance, for 3% of the home's purchase price. The loan will not accrue interest or require a monthly payment.
"The aspect of this program that makes me nervous is the silent second mortgage," Anneliese Lederer, senior policy counsel at the nonprofit Center for Responsible Lending, told MarketWatch in an interview. "It's great that there's no interest on it, but it's a balloon payment, and borrowers need to understand what a balloon payment is."
The Pontiac, Mich.-based company's new program will be available to first-time home buyers and people earning at or below 80% of an area's median income, the company said in a press release.

[terracore]

I've posted this before, so sorry if it sounds like a repeat, but the foreclosure concept is a different animal than it was after the GFC.  When the housing market tanked, the banks were "required" to initiate mass foreclosures because of the 10% reserve requirement.  They had to claw back as many non-performing assets as possible or risk running afoul of banking regulations.  Since that almost tanked the global (ponzi) economy, regulators learned that was probably a bad idea.

To prevent a similar occurrence during COVID, the federal reserve eliminated the reserve requirement.  Remember that scene in "It's a Wonderful Life" where George Bailey was explaining to the mob of depositors that the money wasn't back in a safe somewhere?  Well it isn't.  Most banks will do anything they can to keep existing loans going.  Nobody knows why the FED didn't re-initiate the reserve requirement when the emergency was over, but the most likely explanation is that some of the banks would be unable to comply.

[My 2 cents]

Anything to keep the bubble going.

I guess it sounds better when you say it. ?

My interest and attention over the years has been geared more toward vacant land than housing.  It’s all related, but there’s less variation in vacant land, making it easier to generalize.

As a generalization, what I’ve seen in the vacant land market bubbles is that the values (with “value” being the amount that they actually sell for) tend to roughly triple from bottom to top, and then reduce by roughly half from top to bottom.  I wouldn’t expect this to correlate exactly to the housing market, but I would expect the crash to bottom out at just slightly higher than what the values were before the upswing.