There are now 20 brand new homes for sale in HPP.

[Punatang]

Cover your ears Herr Chunkster.

[HiloJulie]

Hypothetical question(s):

Would the jobs report be considered “fake” if the inverse of jobs was subsequently reported? (Meaning adding 818,000 jobs)

And then, if the initial BLS jobs report is considered “fake” in any instance, how can we then rely on a revised report? Wouldn’t that be considered “fake” as well?

ETA: Ironyak, Thanks for fixing the link!

[Punatang]

   

I stand corrected!  One out of 12 months was ultimately re-revised upward.  It was initially revised downward just like the other 11 months.  One month out of 12 in 2023 which is the subject of the post above.  Those who have studied statistics are aware of how improbable that dataset is regardless of motive or intent for deviant weighting.  

The way things are looking, a 50% haircut on housing, in real value, adjusted for inflation VS wages, may just be in the cards in the not too distant future.

Gen Z deserves a break.

ETA:  HJ, fair questions.  "The market" has a propensity to react to the initial monthly reports and not the subsequent revisions. One will note that today, the day of the massively disappointing revision of 818,000 vanishing jobs, the market closed with every index being up.  Combine that with the idea that sometimes bad news is good news and sometimes good news is bad news (think FED put) and you start to unravel why fake goes in every direction depending on the expediencies of the moment.  At this moment, today, what is expedient is a lowering of interest rates and a tossing of a midnight rambler under the bus.  In both cases, today's disappearance of 818,000 "jobs" that juiced the market back when it was needed, is right on time.  

[/url]DJIA
40890.49
0.14% up

S&P 500
5620.85
0.42% up

Nasdaq
17918.99
0.57% up

Russell 2000
2170.56
1.32% up
[url=https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/US/RUT?mod=hp_mds]

[ironyak]

punatang - One month out of 12 in 2023 which is the subject of the post above.  Those who have studied statistics are aware of how improbable that dataset is

But it's not improbable at all, and there are several other years with similar distributions: 2021 had 11 of 12 months as an undercount, that had to be revised upwards to the tune of ~1.9 million jobs that were missing from the month-to-month survey data (seasonally adjusted, 3rd-to-1st revision totals). 2014 also had 11 of 12 months undercount, with ~440,000 jobs not initially counted. 2010 had 11 of 12 months undercounted, 2008 had 11 of 12 months overcounted, and so forth.

In long enough datasets there are all sorts of "runs" that ultimately don't mean anything, as the underlying data is random. BLS has no control who replies in the month-to-month survey and what numbers they provide, which is why overall the BLS tends to overestimate roughly as often as they underestimate. This is similar to how when flipping a coin you getting 10 heads in a row isn't any more rare than 10 tails in a row, or perfectly alternating heads and tails, or any other combination. The human brain is prone for ascribing meaning to the patterns, but the math makes clear it's all the same statistically.

But please, punatang, do share your regression analysis to show how 2023's data is some sort of outlier in its "fakeness".

When the deeply conservative William F(ucking) Buckley Jr. National Review has to point out "No, the Biden Administration Is Not Manipulating Jobs Data" it should be clear how far out into nonsense interpretations of the world one has strayed - Dunning-Kruger effect run wild.

Umm, keep it Hawaii related, right... HPP is doomed, the data is pointing right at your property, get out while you can! Only you can save the Hawaii housing market's year-over-year sales figures! Won't someone think of the local realtors! and so forth.

[kalianna]

Golly gee. I just consider myself lucky to have a roof over my head and I use the business pages as mulch. Donʻt give yourself an ulcer thinking about this stuff, Punatang. Things get better; things get worse.

[Punatang]

LOL Kaliana, thanks for the excellent advice.  No need.  It's just fun for me.  I'm not on any of the "teams".  I did consider joining the Rent's Too Damn High Party at one time but I'm not a joiner so the urge faded fast.  I do enjoy watching the programmed team trolls spaz out though, make their trolll-y assumptions and AI pontifications in directions no one cares about or reads.  Haters gonna hate but it's good comedy.  We own our longtime home and we aren't going anywhere.  Our grandkids will get this house if they want it.  You could cut the "value" by 99.9% and it wouldn't phase us.  If things get any better, our already maxed out Blissometer might blow but I cherish your concern and I wish the same good fortune for you and all Punawebbers young and old.  Abundance is your birthright.

[kalianna]

Glad to hear it.  Real estate does make for good entertainment but ya know what?  Donʻt tell... I get my jollies from Ben and Jen. 

[ironyak]

punatang - It's just fun for me.
Yeah, it looks like you're having fun... "Public schools are indoctrination", "BLS data is fake propaganda", can't you all feel the joy? If you bother to read only one thing, I'd suggest spending some time on understanding the Dunning-Kruger effect and really thinking about how it might apply.

Genuine question - you tend to throw out these hot takes but then refuse to answer any questions so what's the point of posting them in a public forum? Raising a flag to see who will rally around? Preserving deep thoughts for posterity? Primal therapy shouting into the digital void? It seems like somewhat odd behavior to raise topics and then avoid discussing them, so makes one wonder what's to be gained?

kalianna - I get my jollies from Ben and Jen.
Speaking of being doomed... ;)

[Punatang]

I have to admit I am getting weary of all this bickering going back and forth.  Please leave off.

Communicating on a forum does not require anyone to respond to you.  It does not require that one "win" a debate. 

As for members that have been banned... there have been some and will likely be more in the future.  Who gets banned is up to me.  The most basic criteria I have involves just who is taking up too much oxygen in the room. 

Lastly here, the habit of constantly quoting and requoting in threads make things very hard to read.  Please keep it to a minimum.

[ironyak]

It's not bickering to ask questions. Nor is it bickering to point out factual errors and provide evidence to the contrary. It might be bickering to engage in personal attacks, but you're the one doing that, not me.

Of course no one is owed a reply - I was just curious as to what motivates these ongoing efforts to post conspiracy minded stuff that has nothing to do with Hawaii, nor the thread's topic really, but also isn't some sort of bait as you don't even want to discuss it. Makes little sense to me, but you keep doing you, I'll keep poking fun and posting real-world evidence, and Rob will sort out what, if anything, it's all worth in the end. Cheers!