2025 Hurricane Season

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Kiko 240 hour forecast:

   

[MyManao]

Kiko 240 hour forecast:

Interesting.. when, after noting your screenshot doesn't jibe with what I see.. and not knowing what the settings are to your screenshot because it doesn't including all the pertinent info on the left side of the page, and thinking that zoomed out view is not as important as the more detailed view of the close up settings, I went and looked for myself, and when eliminating all the other systems.. ie the whole world's worth of.. what I see is here..

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/1...-kiko.html

And it tells an entirely different story than your's. 

Fun, eh?

Unfortunately, that site's GUI leaves a bunch to be desired.. like being able to slide the area being viewed over so as to keep the islands and the origin of the storm in the same frame.. or zoom into any but the two settings.. but hey spaghetti can be messy.. just ask the folks that work for children that toss it around the house in frustration..

Meanwhile I do find it interesting that all these models trend more towards us than that curve the weather service's model is taking more to the north suggests.. as if it'll flatten out (head west) rather than continue along a more northerly path.

[ironyak]

your screenshot doesn't jibe with what I see
Looks like a possible difference in "Model run"? Try "09/02/2025/12z"?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

MyManao,
Here’s the link I used for the 240 hour forecast above:

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks

[MyManao]

your screenshot doesn't jibe with what I see
Looks like a possible difference in "Model run"? Try "09/02/2025/12z"?

Fun.. spaghetti roulette.. 

As one would say.. it's all up in the air!

Thx.. both of you for clarifying. 

And, if either of you have a clue as to the difference between one "model run" and another I'd love to hear it.

[ironyak]

Most of the model stuff is above my paygrade, but IIRC the models are often run like 4 times a day and z is for standardized Zulu time (same as UTC) so 6z is 6am Zulu time, 12z is noon, etc... You tend to want the most recent date and time for the model run as they'll be based on most recent storm data (0z, 6z, 12z, 18z are common timestamps but seen some models run on other intervals like 0z, 3z, 6z, etc...)

[MyManao]

Most of the model stuff is above my paygrade..

Gee, you got a pay grade? Nice.

;)

Though, as an old man in a corner without one I'm trying to match those z's with your suggested timeline stuff, and agree that makes sense by the way they are presented, but still I am having a hard time getting them to fit. If it's all zulu plus great.. but that has a hard time fitting with the many different results one gets running though them all.. they certainly bounce around a lot more than a few hours here and there. From truncated (my original) to most, if not all going south.. and then in another instance a whole bunch going north. I hope the storm itself figures out where it's going without the confusion..

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

they certainly bounce around a lot more than a few hours here and there

Way, way beyond my pay grade too, but I once had a friend who was a meteorologist in the Dutch navy.  Does that count?  Probably not but I’ll hazard a guess anyway - - 

Is it possible that small changes, even temporary, in conditions from 240 hours away create relatively large movements in the forecast path?  

As an example, when Apollo 13 was returning from the moon, the greater the distance from earth, the shorter the rocket burn required for a course correction.

[ironyak]

Gee, you got a pay grade? Nice.
And I can assure you my meteorological insights are worth every penny. It would be nice if Punaweb had a resident meteorologist, but I guess FB is punatic Harry Durgin's platform of choice.

As for the models, if you take a shorter prediction time frame like +120h (5 days) and click through the last 8 Model runs (2 days), all the predictions are more constrained and consistent, with much less variation both in north to south spread and forward movement. Consistent enough that NWS is willing to average out the ensemble models and provide a firm 1-3, and hazy 4-5 day, path and cone report. (Tropical Tidbits has some good compilations of the differing model predictions for Kiko)

   

As you increase the prediction length to +144h, +168h, etc, and look again at the last 8 model runs for each, you'll see that variation quickly increases for both the spread and forward movement. As Edge mentioned, by the time you reach +240h, those extrapolations from initial data diverge immensely, with some models placing the storm far past us, and other placing it still to the east of us, creating predictions with a "Disco Stu" level of reliability.

In short, like we've all realized over the years, anything beyond 3 - 5 days is basically anyone's guess (including the meteorologists and the models!) At least Kiko is being considerate with the timing and giving us the weekend to make final preparations within that 3 - 5 day window of warning - maybe enough time for a little costumed dance if Edge will share the lion and dragon adornments?

[TomK]

Is it possible that small changes, even temporary, in conditions from 240 hours away create relatively large movements in the forecast path?  

As an example, when Apollo 13 was returning from the moon, the greater the distance from earth, the shorter the rocket burn required for a course correction.

If you're in a capsule in space and navigating your way back to Earth, you don't need to worry about sea temperatures, upper-level winds, humidity, air temperature, etc. On the other hand, forecasting the weather involves all those variables, plus other factors that can't be taken into account until they are known. It's why weather forecasts tend to be relatively accurate up to 3 days, usefully accurate up to 5 days, and beyond that time, they aren't accurate. Forecasting hurricane tracks and strengths relies on knowing the conditions several days ahead, and certainly beyond 5 days; those aren't well known at all. 

It's not a matter of minor deviations in tracks making it hard to predict a future track; it's the uncertainty in what drives the hurricane, both in terms of its intensity and track, and what will ultimately cause it to dissipate. In this case, it seems likely sea temperatures east of Hawaii will weaken the storm, and it will unlikely be a significant threat to Hawaii. As predicted here a few days ago.