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08-10-2026, 05:31 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2026, 05:32 PM by ironyak.)
Durian Fiend - You seem to be downplaying what the article claims is " a decades worth of meteorological progress".
Never said anything of the sort - just noted that the improvements appear to be focused on short term 2 to 3 day accuracy, not longer time frames like 84+ hour predictions. Also, this is much more in the realm of old-school Machine Learning as opposed to Generative LLMs which most people believe to be "AI" so there are some semantics to sort through here as well.
Weatherman Harry Durgin is quite impressed by this AI development.
Neat, but based on the article and paper in Nature provided, what do you think?
The animations I saw available at tropical tidbits only run for 84 hours.
Here's a 354 hr (or ~15 day) gif animation of the GFS model centered on Hawai'i that Tropical Tidbits generated (click "Forecast GIF" at the bottom of the image and pick a Start and End hour - different models will have different options). It's too big to post on Punaweb, and largely pointless, partly because all the images of predicting what the storm is going to do beyond 3.5 days (84 hours) tends to be highly inaccurate, regardless of the source.
At least the spaghetti is now all lined up in our direction, but maybe now mostly to the north of us? Order up!
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08-10-2026, 05:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2026, 05:41 PM by HereOnThePrimalEdge.)
Thanks for the spaghetti ironyak. For fans of ECMWF here’s the ala carte forecast, also tracking north of Big Island. Image from Tropical Tidbits
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08-10-2026, 05:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2026, 05:55 PM by Punatang.)
Meteorologist Al Dente is confident that the storm will pass north of B.I. He also predicted a Hunt victory so, boil it with a tablespoon of salt.
"If we are too precise we will be called out because we cannot back it with data."- A.F.
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Meteorologist Al Dente
Not sure everyone reading Punaweb gets your joke about Al Dente, firm spaghetti, models. We are discussing a situation that could severely impact everyone on Big Island. At least the “advice” concurs with most Monday projections, which will become more accurate by Wednesday, or Thursday.
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08-10-2026, 06:25 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2026, 06:26 PM by Durian Fiend.)
(08-10-2026, 05:31 PM)ironyak Wrote: Durian Fiend - You seem to be downplaying what the article claims is " a decades worth of meteorological progress".
Never said anything of the sort - just noted that the improvements appear to be focused on short term 2 to 3 day accuracy, not longer time frames like 84+ hour predictions. Also, this is much more in the realm of old-school Machine Learning as opposed to Generative LLMs which most people believe to be "AI" so there are some semantics to sort through here as well.
Weatherman Harry Durgin is quite impressed by this AI development.
Neat, but based on the article and paper in Nature provided, what do you think?
The animations I saw available at tropical tidbits only run for 84 hours.
Here's a 354 hr (or ~15 day) gif animation of the GFS model centered on Hawai'i that Tropical Tidbits generated (click "Forecast GIF" at the bottom of the image and pick a Start and End hour - different models will have different options). It's too big to post on Punaweb, and largely pointless, partly because all the images of predicting what the storm is going to do beyond 3.5 days (84 hours) tends to be highly inaccurate, regardless of the source.
At least the spaghetti is now all lined up in our direction, but maybe now mostly to the north of us? Order up! It's both AI and machine learning. I think it's great! Cool that they're open sourcing this. Looks like that animation has the storm brushing us and whacking Maui.
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Weatherman Harry Durgin is quite impressed..
And oh my does he love those clicks..
At least the spaghetti is now all lined up in our direction..
My own meteorological rule of thumb.. the closer it is the further it's out the further it will be the closer it is.
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Ironyak posted: Order up!
Careful Yak. Humor in this thread gets Edge's pantaloons all twisted up. Levity not allowed.
"If we are too precise we will be called out because we cannot back it with data."- A.F.
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My own meteorological rule of thumb..
Keep in mind that unlike many past storms there is virtually no wind shear to slow this one, and ocean temps are higher, 29 C. If the storm track steers away from us into open ocean those factors won’t matter much. If the storm track veers in our direction, with no wind shear and warm water feeding the system, it could be disastrous.
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(08-10-2026, 06:26 PM)MyManao Wrote: Weatherman Harry Durgin is quite impressed..
And oh my does he love those clicks..
So you say. It was simply included in his semi daily posting. He said there would be two postings a day for this storm, but nothing yet today.
"Keep in mind that unlike many past storms there is virtually no wind shear to slow this one, and ocean temps are higher, 29 C. If the storm track steers away from us into open ocean those factors won’t matter much. If the storm track veers in our direction, with no wind shear and warm water feeding the system, it could be disastrous."
Yeah.
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Humor in this thread gets
You may say what you like.
I will too.
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