Hurricane season 2026

[kalianna]

Spaghetti model has also moved south (for now) with landfall predicted for Kaʻu instead of Puna.

[ironyak]

Another image with the WeatherNext and ECMWF model comparisons with those more southerly paths and differing storm intensities as Edge mentioned. Of course, we're still in the cone of uncertainty for all the models, so not out of the woods yet, but less predicted wind locally is fine by me (hopefully Puna is plenty used to dealing with rain by now).

   

[MyManao]

MyMan! Do you predict that the maunas will help protect us and degrade the storm, this time?

I don’t predict as much as I observe, think about, and occasionally point out patterns, things that become apparent with time.

Like the fact that a storm, a cyclonic weather system that is born on the water, and dependent upon it for its energy, is a vertical column that gets larger and more energetic as it feeds on the energy it gathers. And that once its outer bands encounters land it cannot help but lose some. If nothing else the land itself, being a relatively rough surface compared to the surface of the ocean introduces drag, and doesn't as efficiently transfer its heat, both of which contribute to the degradation of the system.

But more importantly, and specific to the islands, a circulating vertical column of water saturated air that is dependent upon it’s foundation, ie the ocean, and in an ideal state creates a symmetrical structure.. can not help but be disturbed by the presence of an immovable solid mass that appears on one side of the structure. 

The air that a cyclonic structure is made up moves, it flows, in a circle. In our hemisphere it moves counter clockwise. Over open ocean, with no obstacles present, as we have all seen countless times, the structure, when seen from above, has a fairly well defined symmetry, and often times observers will speak of the formation of storm's eye as a sign if it’s strength, it’s maturity. And, one of the first signs of the system degrading is the collapse of the eye.

With the approach to the island, and especially our’s with our large edifices, the symmetry of the storm is disturbed. How could it not be? The air that otherwise would flow through the space they occupy, if they weren’t there, has to go somewhere else. This change sets in motion events that cannot help but lesson the strength of any system that relies on its symmetry. And, regularly the eye becomes misshaped and collapses.

And, of course, with the lower elevation airmass disrupted, and the blocked portion redirected, depending on which quadrant of the system is sheared off the remaining could in one case be more moisture laden, or in another less.

And, as many have speculated, this in turn could create different results under different circumstances.. The movement of air being funneled through either saddle could be intensified.. the clouds being hemmed in more moisture laden.

Similarly, we hear talk of steering currents.. of masses of air off to one side or another of a cyclonic system that ‘steer’ it one way or another, that have an influence, that nudge the system. In the storm today we’ve heard talk of one such steering influence to the north that will keep it on a more westerly track. the same way as that our Mauna influence.. steer.. effect the path of a storm. They don’t reach into the heights so as to have a total effect on the entire column, but still they are of serious consequence lower down and in turn to the system as a whole.

And still, does the discontinuance of the system have to always equal its demise, or are other scenarios possible? A storm approaches, its symmetry disrupted, and yet after it passes there is still enough momentum that as it reconnects with warmer water and an open path it reforms and intensifies?

Obviously we don’t have near enough examples to have anything like a real sense of all the possibilities. But, regardless, our land mass is of consequence, and will always have an effect on any cyclonic system that comes within its influence. And no, ’brother ’Tang, that is not a prediction.. it’s just a simple physical fact.

And, oh btw, I love it when someone says our Maunas will ‘protect,' not because they will but because of the wholly irrational response some ‘scientists' have when they hear it. Of course the Maunas don’t ‘protect’ but damn they sure do affect.. and in a big way. A very big way. So yeah, it can be said they’re protective.. they have an affect and in most cases that is to deflect and lesson a cyclonic storm’s effect on the islands. But of course, we would have to collect dozens, hundreds, more examples of this happening than all of our ‘recorded history’ already provides before we could say we know what those effects will be in any given situation.

And, again, brother ‘Tang. I make no predictions.. only share a lifetime of observations. And, I imagine, with the approach of this one things won’t be much different..

[Durian Fiend]

Now a tropical storm. NOAA has storm track catching the south end of our island. Weather Underground has it passing a bit further south. Being on the north end of the storm would mean we will get significant wind from it. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/c...storm-lala

[Punatang]

MyMan! Posted: And, again, brother ‘Tang. I make no predictions.. only share a lifetime of observations. And, I imagine, with the approach of this one things won’t be much different..


IMHO there is no question that Big Island's terrain has an effect on storms within range of being affected.

[ironyak]

Storm tracks models look to be much the same, but NHC has lots of info on newly named Tropical Storm Lala. Outdoor furniture fly away forecast has 40%ish chance of sustained wind speeds greater than 39mph - maybe someone can translate this to local units? Rattan should be brought inside, but teak can ride it out? Cushions with ties may hold, but those without are saying sayonara?

Regardless, Maku'u Farmers Market posted that they are going to be closed on Sunday as they are spending today pulling down the tarps.

   

[sistersue]

Storm tracks models look to be much the same, but NHC has lots of info on newly named Tropical Storm Lala. Outdoor furniture fly away forecast has 40%ish chance of sustained wind speeds greater than 39mph - maybe someone can translate this to local units? Rattan should be brought inside, but teak can ride it out? Cushions with ties may hold, but those without are saying sayonara?

Regardless, Maku'u Farmers Market posted that they are going to be closed on Sunday as they are spending today pulling down the tarps.

We're not in the "cone of uncertainty" so does that mean Lala won't be as bad as Iselle was?  Was Puna in Iselle's cone?

---

Storm tracks models look to be much the same, but NHC has lots of info on newly named Tropical Storm Lala. Outdoor furniture fly away forecast has 40%ish chance of sustained wind speeds greater than 39mph - maybe someone can translate this to local units? Rattan should be brought inside, but teak can ride it out? Cushions with ties may hold, but those without are saying sayonara?

Regardless, Maku'u Farmers Market posted that they are going to be closed on Sunday as they are spending today pulling down the tarps.

We're not in the "cone of uncertainty" so does that mean Lala won't be as bad as Iselle was?  Was Kapoho in Iselle's cone?

---

Storm tracks models look to be much the same, but NHC has lots of info on newly named Tropical Storm Lala. Outdoor furniture fly away forecast has 40%ish chance of sustained wind speeds greater than 39mph - maybe someone can translate this to local units? Rattan should be brought inside, but teak can ride it out? Cushions with ties may hold, but those without are saying sayonara?

Regardless, Maku'u Farmers Market posted that they are going to be closed on Sunday as they are spending today pulling down the tarps.

We're not in the "cone of uncertainty" so does that mean Lala won't be as bad as Iselle was?  Was Puna in Iselle's cone?

---

Storm tracks models look to be much the same, but NHC has lots of info on newly named Tropical Storm Lala. Outdoor furniture fly away forecast has 40%ish chance of sustained wind speeds greater than 39mph - maybe someone can translate this to local units? Rattan should be brought inside, but teak can ride it out? Cushions with ties may hold, but those without are saying sayonara?

Regardless, Maku'u Farmers Market posted that they are going to be closed on Sunday as they are spending today pulling down the tarps.

We're not in the "cone of uncertainty" so does that mean Lala won't be as bad as Iselle was?  Was Kapoho in Iselle's cone?

Google just told me that Iselle's cone was pointed at Hilo.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Was Puna in Iselle's cone?

sistersue, 
Iselle was a Cat 3 or Cat 4 hurricane on its approach to Hawaii Island, then lost strength.  Here’s Iselle’s cone less than 24 hours from landfall, which turned out to be a fairly accurate forecast.

   

Upper Puna was on the north side of the storm, HPP was thrashed.  When roads cleared a few days afterward and I drove to Hilo, it was untouched just 15-20 miles farther north.

[MyManao]

Here’s Iselle’s cone less than 24 hours from landfall, which turned out to be a fairly accurate forecast..

I don't think that's correct. From what I can tell, as it approached the island, hurricane Iselle actually was on a more southerly track (is that a mauna effect?) and the center made landfall only briefly around Pahala and left soon thereafter over HOVE. See track on map below taken from Iselle's wikipedia page.

And, btw, the damage to Lower Puna, although considerably more than Hilo, and yes Hilo got 15mph less winds, but Lower Puna's damage was graphically enhanced because of the abundance of Albizia, and they all blew down, and took the grid with them. Without the Albizia the damage would have been far less.

[randomq]

Has anyone ever looked at historical records of winds in mauka Puna vs at sea level? I wonder if being 1k-4k feet up in a jungle doesn't dampen the winds quite a bit?