Hurricane season 2026

[ironyak]

Hope everyone caught that crazy purple fog sunset - vibes getting even stranger than usual out there.

Also some local power outages popping up already. Hunker down and be safe all!
https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/safety-...outage-map

   

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Last check of the night.
Most indicators improved during the afternoon and evening.  Models generally moving slightly to the south.  WeatherNext no longer shows a Cat 2 forming, but still a Cat 1 off South Point.

Rain?  Haven’t checked amounts expected, but there will be plenty.

[MyManao]

turning almost straight north directly into Mauna Loa..

Seems you have a knack for mixing apples and oranges Edge. Whatever happens around the lowest slopes of Waiohinu is sure to be minini compared to the grander edifices as a whole.

The thing I like about that animation is how the center of the storm breaks up entirely as it interacts with the island creating two centers, one trapped to the south while another Kona side takes shape, before they merge a little while later Kona side.

And do keep in mind, what we're seeing is computer gobbledygook. There's nothing real about it. it's a model.. it's make believe projection into the future. The, seemingly, cool part is they're trying to model a storm's interaction with the land.

But hey, if you like dis.. dis away Edge.. you da man brah.

And still the whole point is, cyclonic systems are altered by their interaction with land.. and the bigger the area, the taller the mass stands.. the more the interaction changes the system. Which until recently the entire idea was called, by good ol' PaulW no less, magic.

[sistersue]

Last check of the night.
Most indicators improved during the afternoon and evening.  Models generally moving slightly to the south.  WeatherNext no longer shows a Cat 2 forming, but still a Cat 1 off South Point.

Rain?  Haven’t checked amounts expected, but there will be plenty.

I'm afraid Lala is going to leave us the same as Eselle did with albizias tangled in power lines and blocked streets and power outages that will take 3 days to 3 weeks or longer to fix (if the wind is as strong as they predict).

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Rainfall
The CPHC rainfall map has shifted the burgundy area for 16-20” of rain slightly west.  Those numbers are projected for upper Puna.  Coastal areas will receive slightly less, 8-16”.

Fortunately the storm continues to move steadily west.

   

[ChunksterK]

According to Windy, the European Model shows Lala continuing west, while the GFS shows a sharp jog to the north, hitting South Point.

[Obie]

My place in HPP lost power and the outages are becoming very widespread.

[Durian Fiend]

According to Windy, the European Model shows Lala continuing west, while the GFS shows a sharp jog to the north, hitting South Point.

Its westward progress has slowed.  Hopefully a turn to the north would be short lived before speeding up and exiting our area.

[Punatang]

MyMan! Posted someone else's words, with emphasis:  Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the island’s terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time. 


Punatang Posted earlier in his own words: IMHO there is no question that Big Island's terrain has an effect on storms within range of being affected.


LOL MyMan!  The sentence you copied and pasted and emphasized sounds much more like my single, clear sentence, than it sounds like your previous, laboriously long, spray and pray musings.  


It's anyone's guess at this point.  It would be wild if we learn someday that The Maunas, actually act to draw storms nearer in certain circumstances and conditions.  As with everything else in this world, there are so many unseen variables that we don't even know exist much less have the ability to measure and factor.  No one has a clue but everyone sure seems to love AI at the moment.

Stay safe and dry PW peeps. Please keep an eye out for your neighbors.

[BlackAkita]

My place in HPP lost power and the outages are becoming very widespread.

I'm seeing two outages reported in the Nanawale Estates area, and more elsewhere. 

https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/safety-...outage-map

Loss of electrical power is one of the ties to "civilization" comforts we desperately need (especially the older we get). The dominoes are falling one by one. At this stage, a little prayer could be helpful, as the forces of nature are far too powerful for man's hubris, and HECO's infrastructure.