Mauna Loa Waking Up, "Time to Prep" articles, Can it hit lower Puna?

[terracore]

I think the most dramatic volcanic activity would be Hualalai taking out the Kona airport and all the resorts. The airport is built on the 1801 flow when Mauna Loa was also erupting. It has been theorized that in recent times it has only erupted when Mauna Loa or Kilauea was also erupting.

[dobanion]

It's that really steep bit in South Kona that's the most worrisome part. Combined with high volume makes for fast flows and little warning.

Then in 1868, it decided to do a lateral vent eruption, which is to say, lava just popped out in a almost random location outside of the rift zones.

[TomK]

Dear "MyManao" and your other socks,

I have some questions and points I'd like to make. Thanks for your indulgence.

"The 1984 eruption of Mauna Loa was only 3 weeks long. By that time flows had reached within about 9 miles of the outskirts of Hilo. Though the distance traveled was impressive, by that time the lava flow's advance had been reduced to a crawl. As such, any threat to Hilo proper would have still been months away."

I understand that, although if the eruption had lasted longer than three-weeks, surely the risk to Hilo would have been greater?

"As I said above, the flow that threatened Hilo in 1984 came within a few miles of town before it was slowed by the loss of heat experienced by lava flowing over that distance."

So are you claiming the lava wouldn't have reached Hilo because it would have cooled down or that the eruption only lasted three-weeks? If the eruption had continued for a longer time, wouldn't the cooling lava have been continually replenished by newer and hotter lava?

"So, using that model, and assuming the next Mauna Loa East Rift eruption is from the same area as the last, and listening to the speculation that the next eruption in that area is likely to flow towards the south side of the rift, we can imagine the flow reaching to.. maybe Eden Rock.. Fern Acres... before it runs out of steam?"

I do have a little experience in modeling systems. I can tell you now that the above is not a model, it's a mixture of assumptions, imagination, maybes, hearsay, and speculation. The "listening to speculation" bit really started to give that away as well as ending with a question. Why not just say "I don't know?".

"And do keep in mind, by the blue lines.. i.e., the paths water would take flowing from that area (the 9,000 foot elevation near Red Hill) the flows would go through the Volcano Farm Lots before glancing off of Kilauea in the Akasuka Orchids area and fanning out through Fern Forest and below.."

Whatever you say. Just a suggestion - you might post a link to a website or a map so others know what you a referring to. I've often found doing that is helpful.

"Yeah, I suspect Mauna Loa could be for more impacting to Puna than some imagine..."

Geologically or economically? Or something else? If, e.g., Hilo is overrun by lava then, of course, Puna is going to suffer or is this your final conclusion?

Oh, wait a minute, it isn't:

"And hey, if it doesn't come this side again, imagine if it goes to the West! This...


https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-loa...e-eruption

is an awesome read.. a real page turner."

It's not really a page-turner, is it?

[TomK]

MyManao? Are you still with us?

[dobanion]

USGS published a article about a earthquake swarm technically on Mauna Loa, right around the campground west of the park entrance. This week.

Follow a link to a 2013 article about why earthquakes happen there, and it's probably magma intrusion in Kilauea's upper east rift zone. And there's nothing there, so, rejoice.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Here’s a link to Mauna Loa’s status as of this morning, 3/19:

On March 18, 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) has recorded over 40 earthquakes beneath the upper Ka'ōiki seismic zone, about 21 km (13 mi) WNW of Volcano. These earthquakes are occurring in a cluster about 2 km (1 mi) wide and 0.5–6 km (0.5–4 mi) below the surface. 

The largest event in the sequence, so far, was a magnitude-3.5 earthquake, with the bulk of the events being less than magnitude-2 and not widely reported by residents. Reported felt events were described as weak shaking, with a maximum Intensity of II on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale. 

Clustering of shallow earthquakes in this region does not mean an eruption is imminent. HVO has recorded shallow earthquakes in this area for many decades across several eruptive cycles at both Kīlauea and Mauna Loa. These earthquakes do not show any signs of magmatic involvement and are part of normal re-adjustments of the volcano due to changing stresses within it. Other monitoring data streams for Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, including ground deformation, gas, and imagery, show no signs of increased activity. 


https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/hans_noti...6:36-07:00

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

From a recent USGS post about Kilauea:

Volcano Watch — Using the ocean to track volcanic activity at Kīlauea

The microseismic signals display large variations during periods when Kīlauea is inflating or deflating due to magma moving beneath its surface. Similar variations occur when the volcano is actively erupting, such as now. Scientists measure differences in these observed microseisms during periods of volcanic activity relative to times of quiet, in an effort to identify when, where, and for how long magma is migrating and being stored within Kīlauea.  

HVO scientists recently applied this technique to better understand the events leading up to the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption and summit collapse. Microseism data combined with more traditional seismic and deformation patterns document the increase of pressure within the shallow region of the magma storage reservoir at Kīlauea’s summit. Both the summit and the East Rift Zone immediately began expanding rapidly, suggesting that magma was moving into these regions.  

https://www.usgs.gov/center-news/volcano...ty-k-lauea

[MyManao]

More thoughts, building on my earlier post...

Keep in mind that unlike Kilauea’s East Rift Zone which runs right through Puna and on for dozens of miles off into the sea, Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone, for the most part, is considered to abruptly end at about the 9,000 foot elevation. There have been three eruptive events over the last couple of hundred years in that same area at the rift’s end, and further back in time it appears that point has been the origin of many, most, of the flows that make up the surface of the subaerial portion of the East end of Mauna Loa.

In that same (historic) time there have been other events immediately mauka along the rift that have also sent flows towards Hilo. Interestingly the three at the Eastern end were all short lived, from two to three weeks in length, and yet they sent flows a considerable distance. The 1984 flow, which lasted only 22 days, was over 15 miles long, whereas the two flows whose origins are immediately up-rift, and also followed the same pattern of heading towards Hilo, lasted closer to a year apiece. And yet, when we consider the large amount of time between the short lived and long lived flows, the distance the longer flows traveled (the 1881 flow into Hilo was approximately 29 miles long) is not all that much further than the ones that lasted only a few weeks. I mean, yeah, the 1881 is almost twice as long, but it took more than ten times the amount of time to get there.

With that in mind, I think the 1984 flow was still months away from being a real threat to Hilo when it stopped.

Those events, along with all the other Mauna Loa eruptions that occurred in historical time, are cataloged in Lockwood and Lipman’s list of historic eruptions here..

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr...200604.pdf

There is a map included in that paper which highlights the historic flows it lists. Though to really appreciate how throughout time (beyond the limits of the 200+ years of the “historic” record) lava flows big and small have issued from that point on Mauna Loa one might appreciate the more detailed Geologic Map of the Northeast Flank of Mauna Loa Volcano, found here..

https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sim2932A

For the most part the historic flows being considered were Aa. In other words, they were flows with open channels that are inefficient at transporting molten lava over great distances. Flows that by design facilitate the cooling of the lava they are made of. As such their leading edge, as it advances further and further from its source, ends up being made up more of solidified rock being pushed from behind by thick sluggish lava than the fluid river of lava that many imagine. Had any of the flows in question transitioned into Pahoehoe, and become tubed over, then all bets would be off. Hilo town could be inundated in weeks, rather than the months that it took the 1881 flow to get there.

Spending a little time with that map reveals all sorts of things one otherwise doesn’t consider. Just the size of the Panaewa Flow, which originated from the same place at the end of the Northeast Rift, and went on to create all of the land from Mokaoku, in Hilo Bay, to Keaau, is mind boggling. To think of an event of that size, in the same general area, South Hilo to the Keaau side of Puna? Then we’d be talking life changing.. for all of us. Wow..

The idea that the next eruption from the terminus of Mauna Loa's Northeast Rift would fan towards the South rather than the North side of the rift is based on an observation by a local volcanologist, that the strike, the line of fissures, of each successive eruption in that area has moved, over time, towards the South by about 100 meters per event. And, as such, based on the location of the last event, in 1984, the next event, if the pattern holds, would break ground on the South side of the actual topographic high of the rift itself. By observation, I mean in conversation. Though, if you want to drill down on that I would suggest a deep dive into the newer Lockwood and Trusdell maps of Mauna Loa referenced above.

With this one idea, that the rift’s openings are migrating over time towards the South, combined with the historic data showing some sort of limit to the initial rapid flow advancement which is then followed by a much slower advance over time, one can, if even in a ballpark, sense the outer limits to the earlier rapid emplacement of flows from a Mauna Loa Northeast Rift event. That is, assuming it is Aa.

Remember when lava came to Pahoa town, and just couldn’t, no matter how hard it tried, get across 130? And that was Pahoehoe. I sense there’s a correlation there though.. some kind of story about the outer limits of a flow’s reach. Some combination of time and distance, volume, slope, environmental conditions… and, of course, the vigor of the eruption itself, which always starts with a surge as the initially pent up magma breaks to the surface, and wanes as time goes by. 

The blue line reference is to the topo maps that were released starting with the eruption that threatened Pahoa. That infamous flow that turned Mileka Lincoln into a star (whatever happened to Mileka?)  I’m sure you remember the blue lines, yeah? When HVO introduced them as a layer to their digital map products, they wrote…

From… https://www.usgs.gov/center-news/volcano...-lava-flow

"An important feature now included on HVO's maps is the calculated paths of steepest descent, shown as blue lines. These blue lines are not stream beds, but can be envisioned as the regional drainage pattern. In other words, they are the paths where any fluid, including lava, would be likely to flow…”

Through a cursory search online I can’t find a publicly available map in graphic format that includes the blue lines in the area we’re talking about. But rest assured, if you review the original data set, available here..

https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item...4b2d130eb5

You’ll find that what I refer to to be the case. Even a look at the pattern left in the mountain itself, the ‘grain’ of the flows as they lay on the flank of the volcano, suggests as much. Look at the map included here..

https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1089/HawIs...5_2007.pdf

Or, if you want, here’s the digital resource of that as well..

https://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/2005/144/

Since we’re ‘speculating’ about a connection between Mauna Loa and Puna, I would be remiss not to mention that oft’ under-appreciated extension of her Northeast Rift that comes right down into Puna. Remember, above I say "Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone, for the most part, is considered to abruptly end at about the 9,000 foot elevation.” Well, that could be rephrased as “for the most part eruptions of Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone rarely break out East of Red Hill, or the 9,000’ elevation.” In that there actually is a lower.. longer.. extension of the rift that runs not as the upper portion does, but trends a bit more towards the South, and eventually crosses Highway 11 in the vicinity of Aloha Estates. That buggah, which is assumed to extend makai of highway 11 under Kilauea, could put an eruption right in the heart of Puna. Not a flow that we all take bets on when it will peter to a crawl somewhere in the forest up Mauna, but right down in the heart of Hawaiian Acres! With flows rapidly advancing through HPP. Imagine that! Imagine the headlines! The movie! Who will play the hero, the villain...?

That less active part of Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift last erupted in the area of Kulani Cone about 800 years ago, and it sent a flow that almost got as far as Aloha Estates. So I doubt we can discount its potential completely. 

Hey, don’t shoot me, we’re speculating. And besides, after Leilani gobbled up Kapoho, I’m convinced she can do whatever she wants. Who would have thunk, eh? But still. The blue lines knew. They always do.

As to the 1950 event over on the West side. Man, I read through that and imagine our hero, a coffee farmer no doubt, and his lady, there is always a leading lady, right? (Maybe she's a scientist studying the volcanoes, one of the famous Geobabes!) Being awakened in the night by the anxieties of the farm animals and seeing a red glow in the clouds up mauka and OMG all the twists and turns, the harrowing experiences they endure as the night goes on and the lava flows rage.. All to be found at dawn with their entire Ohana safely watching as the rivers of molten rock flow into the sea..

But for real, the 1950 event is an amazing example of Mauna Loa’s potential. It too lasted 22 days, but put out close to twice the volume as the 1984 Northeast side event. 0.38 cubic kilometers verses 0.22. And although, in 1950, that side of the island was sparsely populated, to imagine that event superimposed on the realities of today, with the same lands being covered in people, homes, farms.. and still only one road and a government ill prepared to handle any sort of mass evacuation… Imagine that happening to HOVE! No, man, that is going to be one dramatic movie. Lights, action, cameras, roll ‘em!

And, since we're imagining, imagine if Hualalai were to wake up (yeah terracore I hear ya). It's not nearly as active as Mauna Loa or Kilauea, but geologic mapping of the volcano shows that 80 percent of its surface has been covered by lava flows in the past 5,000 years. And that buggah, OMG, it puts out lava flows that are inches thick! Literally so hot they flow like water.. and that sucker is steep! 

Oh the drama!

And still, this is America, one size fits all, right?

[eightfingers2.0]

I guess if we were really seriously concerned, we wouldn’t be living here, right?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

But for real,
...
advancing through HPP. Imagine that!

Well, that’s a lot of ifs and maybes which may or may not raise concerns.
Just to be on the safe side, I’ve already ordered a customizable control switch labeled “Mauna Loa” with switch configurations as “Off” and “OFF!”.  I feel better already.  

https://www.concordaerospace.com/collect...gle-switch

(Don’t miss the Chemtrails model on their website.)