Restrictions to continue!

[kander]

This means that the vaccinated may have very likely brought the most recent spike to Hawaii. Because at the time, it wasn't known that they could still be carriers, aquire and transmit the virus. Now we know otherwise.

---

Not much safety in safe travels. But again, it doesn't matter. Its not about safety. vaxed and unvaxed are both at risk of catching the virus regardless of which of the thousands of strains. It does seem convenient to be whipping up the panic button while they push to get children vaccinated.

[Wao nahele kane]

HOTPE,

If you don't believe the pre testing requirements were pulled for vaccinated people on July 8, 2021, you can watch the video in the following official link... Or look it up for yourself.
If you see no correlation between the date they ceased pre testing requirements for vaccinated to enter the state and the date the covid infection spike began, you're only fooling yourself here.
   


https://travel.hawaii.gov/#/

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

If you see no correlation between the date they ceased pre testing requirements for vaccinated to enter the state

I agree with you, I see correlation.
What I'm not sure of is whether there's causation.  Are other factors in play at the same time that also may have caused the spike?

[kalianna]

The timing of the spike coincided with the arrival of the delta variant. I canʻt remember the website but it indicated that only 2% of new cases this summer were from travelers, and of those, the majority were from returning Hawaii residents and not visitors.

[Wao nahele kane]

If you see no correlation between the date they ceased pre testing requirements for vaccinated to enter the state

I agree with you, I see correlation.
What I'm not sure of is whether there's causation.  Are other factors in play at the same time that also may have caused the spike?

Causation is simple, the virus within a host, transmitted to another person. 

Requirements for unvaccinated remained with respect to pre-testing, that was still required or face the 10 day quarantine. They may have stopped post entry testing on July 8th, I don't recall the presice date. But there was a period where post arrival tests were given at airport and for a time you had to wait for results at airport, then they stopped the wait time at airport and just required the post arrival test before exiting airport and would let you know if it came back positive later and then later they scrapped post arrival test altogether. That may have been on July 8th also, don't recall all the little change dates. 

I suspect the July 8th requirement changes were the causation (with respect to inadvertently allowing in infected people into the state) of the July 12 infection wave. Once infected tourists entered the state, they passed it on to the local population. Most likely the bulk of transmissions were asymptomatic carriers. 
We didn't have the issue with quarantined people previously, so quarantined weren't likely the cause. Post entry testing was likely scrapped because they weren't detecting enough infections from those being pretested. This leaves the vaccinated entering from outside Hawaii as the predominate carriers that infected the state. 

The concerning part is that at that time, the "consensus" was (birthed by other vaccines history) that vaccinated people don't transmit a virus they were vaccinated for. Unfortunately people weren't considering the fact that this vaccine hadn't been through long term trials and therefore they made assumptions that weren't based on these vaccines but rather other former vaccines. Unfortunately, that's not how sound science is supposed to work. So we operated on assumption formed by the results of other vaccines and that was a big no, no. 


Once the vaccinated who were infected entered the state with their asymptomatic infections, they were free to infect anyone under the proper circumstances. The governor's message to potential visitors early in the spike was to please stay away, that meant everyone, because they knew the vaccinated were bringing in the virus. The governor didn't make the request of unvaccinated, he made the request of everyone. 

Now, the real question is this. Why can't public official be transparent and honest with the public? Why do they insist on spreading disinformation and stir up domestic unrest, pitting one group against another?

[Wao nahele kane]

...

"a new COVID variant has been discovered, possibly dangerous, more than likely incubated in an unvaccinated person." ...
"The odds. (It's possible it's from a vaccinated person, but far, far, far less likely.)"

I think we're both making a similar statement, based on the available information.

It's unlikely a rapidly emerged multi mutation occured in the average unvaccinated or vaccinated person. If it did occure in a person, it's likely it happened in a immunocompromised person. And more likely to have occured in a immunocompromised vaccinated person. That would not be the case if this occured with a polio virus because the Polio vaccine is far superior in all aspects towards protecting from Polio than any covid19 vaccine is effective against covid19. 

The fact the covid 19 vaccine has such low efficacy properties and a short lived efficacy against death from covid-19 is a double edge sword. It protects against the final conclusion (death) of covid-19 and that's it. In doing so, it protects immunocompromised hosts from death and therefore resides longer within an immunocompromised vaccinated person than it would in a non-vaccinated immunocompromised person (who likely dies instead of lives and dies more quickly reducing the available mutation making time frame). That's how the odds play out with this covid-19 vaccine. With other historic good vaccines, becoming infected wouldn't typically happen at all. That's the difference, historic vaccines protect against infection and transmission, covid-19 vaccines don't they only reduce complications. That is a double edge sword.

Here's the technicality that the majority haven't noticed.
Note, this is a covid-19 vaccine not a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. There is a difference. Covid-19 is the complications that occure from the SARS-CoV-2 virus. You are technically only vaccinated for complications not the virus itself. This is why it's not referred to as a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

[Wao nahele kane]

The timing of the spike coincided with the arrival of the delta variant.  I canʻt remember the website but it indicated that only 2% of new cases this summer were from travelers, and of those, the majority were from returning Hawaii residents and not visitors.

I won't ask for the reference you are citing, mostly because I'll just believe you and I truly do believe you read that somewhere and the data is actually factual. I wont even argue that, I respect it as factual. Fair enough?

Now, let's consider that data and apply it to the situation in reference. 

Would the state be testing infected vaccinated people who entered the state that are asymptomatic for covid19? They wouldn't be, obviously, because they pulled the testing requirement for vaccinated people. They're asymptomatic so they feel no reason to get a test. So they don't appear in the data, correct? We aren't doing full testing on everyone, so there's no way we would find asymptomatic vaccinated carriers in the visitor data. 

When an asymptomatic infected but vaccinated person comes in from out of state and then infects someone here, the person they infect that gets tested would most likely be a non-vaccinated local who becomes symptomatic, correct? And thus the results with respect to the data collected would show exactly what you cited. Yes?

We cannot dismiss that average 4 day span with a 2-14 day incubation period for symptoms. July 8 to July 12 and the subsiquent increase in cases thereafter. When we consider the circumstances of a vaccinated asymptomatic carrier that would apply within an infection scenario of a local here in Hawaii, we get results that show unvaccinated locals are becoming infected, naturally. We wouldn't expect anything else, unless they tested all those vaccinated people before they got here, then we likely would have seen a whole different data set and drawn a much more accurate picture of what happened. Actually, we'd have likely screened out the vaccinated asymptomatic carriers, not let them in and the spike may not have occured at all if we tested them all. 

As it stands today, vaccinated infected people who are asymptomatic are arriving here, even today. They eventually go home and aren't tested for anything, therefore they never appear in the Hawaii data. Why would they? They are far less likely to display symptoms than a non vaccinated person, so they slip right through the data collection because they're never tested. We can expect nothing more when the data isn't fully collected on everyone to begin with.

So the data you saw is no surprise.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

So the data you saw is no surprise.

Especially the part about delta being a new variant,which according to the CDC was more than twice as contagious as previous strains. That would also cause a spike as shown in the charts.  In Hawaii there were plenty of cases spread within the local community.

What about local residents employed as service workers at resorts and high end restaurants?  Did they experience an exceptionally high number of COVID cases with their regular exposure to mainland tourists?  Did they spread the virus among other workers where they worked?  Were they are tested regularly and would the positive test results have shown up in the Hawaii DOH data?   Did any resorts or restaurants shut down during the spike because they had so many mainland guests with asymptomatic symptoms spreading it to local resort workers?  I don't recall that happening.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Here’s what health experts say about Omicron:

What scientists do know is that the virus is much more likely to mutate in places where vaccination is low and transmission high.

Head said the emergence of new variants was "a natural consequence of being too slow to vaccinate the world." 

"We still have large unvaccinated populations, like we have across sub-Saharan Africa, and these are susceptible to big outbreaks," he said. 
New variants of the virus that have caused problems in the past, Head added, have all emerged from places that experienced big, uncontrolled outbreaks,

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/28/world/omi...index.html

[Durian Fiend]

So the data you saw is no surprise.

Especially the part about delta being a new variant,which according to the CDC was more than twice as contagious as previous strains. That would also cause a spike as shown in the charts.  In Hawaii there were plenty of cases spread within the local community.

What about local residents employed as service workers at resorts and high end restaurants?  Did they experience an exceptionally high number of COVID cases with their regular exposure to mainland tourists?  Did they spread the virus among other workers where they worked?  Were they are tested regularly and would the positive test results have shown up in the Hawaii DOH data?   Did any resorts or restaurants shut down during the spike because they had so many mainland guests with asymptomatic symptoms spreading it to local resort workers?  I don't recall that happening.

Correct. 

 There may have been a few vaccinated asymptomatic tourists arriving, along with some unvaccinated who tested negative yet were nevertheless carriers.  But how would they spread to locals, since they're not interacting with them except in very guarded and brief encounters?

The state epidemiologists indicated that the Delta wave was locally driven.  What that means is that locals travelling out of state, then returning were responsible for the spread. Whether they were vaccinated or just tested, they're the ones gathering in groups with other Hawaiians, not tourists!