Watching the earthquake swarm?

[MyManao]

So does an intrusion mean that it doesnʻt reach the surface?  And dear me!  The HVO earthquake site is down for the moment.

An intrusion is subterranean movement of magma that sometimes leads to an eruption and at others the magma runs out of energy before it reaches the surface.

[terracore]

HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY STATUS REPORT
U.S. Geological Survey
Thursday, February 1, 2024, 7:14 PM HST (Friday, February 2, 2024, 05:14 UTC)
KILAUEA (VNUM #332010)
19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Kīlauea is not erupting.  The ongoing seismic swarm continues with most earthquakes occurring beneath the Koaʻe fault zone 5-8 miles (8-12 km) southwest of Kīlauea caldera.  There have been roughly 15-20 earthquakes per hour in this region for most of the day.  There continue to be a few scattered earthquakes within Kīlauea caldera, but no significant clusters of activity.

Tiltmeters at Sand Hill and Uēkahuna bluff continue to show ground motion at consistent directions and rates, suggesting that the summit region is deflating as magma moves from this region to the southwest.

A significant amount of lava has been intruded south and southwest of Kīlauea caldera since Saturday, January 27th, 2024.  Models suggest an accumulation of as much as 40 million cubic yards (30 million cubic meters) in the region to the southwest of the caldera during this event.  As long as the intrusion continues, there is a chance that an eruption could occur within or southwest of the caldera with little advanced warning.

Upgrades to the network may continue to cause intermittent outages that are affecting public access to monitoring data. HVO maintains internal access to volcano monitoring data and will continue to report on volcanic activity.  We apologize for any inconvenience during this dynamic time. 

Kīlauea volcano alert level and aviation color code remain at WATCH/ORANGE as the situation remains dynamic. HVO will continue to issue daily Kīlauea updates; additional notices will be issued as activity warrants.

[terracore]

[b]KILAUEA[/b] (VNUM #332010)
19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY
Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW

[b]Activity Summary:[/b]  Kīlauea volcano is not erupting. Seismicity in the summit and along the Koa‘e fault system southwest of the summit has decreased significantly over the past 24 hours. The intrusion of magma into this area appears to have slowed, and the likelihood of an eruption has decreased. A VAN/VONA was issued earlier this morning, lowering the Alert level from Orange/Watch to Yellow/Advisory.  

[b] Summit Observations: [/b] Seismicity and ground deformation beneath the summit and extending 5-7 miles (8-11 km) southwest of the caldera under the Koa‘e fault zone have decreased significantly in the past 24 hours. Earthquake counts have dropped from 20-30 events per hour to 5-10 events per hour and earthquakes are no longer clustering in the vicinity of Pu‘ukoa‘e, but are dispersed more widely from the summit to the southwest. Depths remain consistent, 1–4 km (less than a mile–2.5 mi) below the surface and magnitudes range a maximum of 3+ to less than 1. In total, less than 300 earthquakes have been recorded across this region over the past 24 hours, reflecting the continued decrease in seismicity.   
Over the past day, tiltmeters near Sand Hill and Uēkahuna bluff have recorded very little change after the steep deflation of the past 2 days related to magma moving southwest.   
Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments have recorded up to 8 inches (20 cm) of horizontal motion at stations around the SWRZ and immediately to the south along the Koa‘e fault zone.  
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas emission rates remain low. Field measurements indicated an SO2 emission rate of approximately 70 tonnes per day, on January 17, which was similar to measurements in October, November, and early December.     
Patterns of earthquakes and ground deformation indicate that magma intruded beneath the south end of the caldera beginning on the morning of January 27th. This activity waxed and waned until Wednesday, January 31, when greatly increased seismicity and tilt indicated a dike was being emplaced, triggering episodic felt earthquakes and rockfalls within Halema‘uma‘u.  By 5 p.m. HST on January 31st, seismicity migrated southwest of the caldera towards the Ko‘ae fault system and tiltmeters in the south caldera area began to record strong deflation.  Modeling of tiltmeter, GPS, and satellite radar interferometry (INSAR) images suggest that magma within the initial dike migrated southwest into the new intrusion as it opened beneath the Ko‘ae fault zone.  The overall decrease in seismicity and deformation over the past 24 hours suggests that this event is waning.  However, renewed episodes of activity remain a possibility and an eruption could occur with little advanced warning. 
 Rift Zone Observations:  Seismicity in Kīlauea's upper East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone remained low in the past 24 hours.   No unusual activity has been noted along the middle and lower sections of Kīlauea's East Rift Zone. We continue to closely monitor both rift zones. 
Measurements from continuous gas monitoring stations downwind of Puʻuʻōʻō in the middle East Rift Zone—the site of 1983–2018 eruptive activity—have been below detection limits for SO2, indicating that SO2 emissions from Puʻuʻōʻō are negligible.    
Kīlauea volcano alert level and aviation color code has been lowered to ADVISORY/YELLOW, but the situation remains dynamic. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory continues to closely monitor Kīlauea volcano and will re-evaluate alert levels and notices as activity warrants.     

[kalianna]

Sheʻs shakinʻ now. Alert level has been raised to orange. No eruption. Yet.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea?inst=101742

[MyManao]

Sheʻs shakinʻ now.  Alert level has been raised to orange.  No eruption.  Yet.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea?inst=101742

An interesting deformation plot to go along with the eqs..

How much is noise, and how much is actual change in the ground is still too early to say, but that much deflation suggests magma's on the move.. 

Note: this file is not static, but rather will update itself every 10-15 minutes.. so can be looked at through this event to watch for changes..

[kalianna]

Which begs the question, where is it going? Iʻve also been curious about why, when itʻs shakinʻ at the top, the deep Pahala quakes stop. Then, once the quakes stop, the Pahala quakes start up again. I thought theyʻre supposed to be unrelated.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

9:12 PM
4.25
Felt that one!

[TomK]

Sheʻs shakinʻ now.  Alert level has been raised to orange.  No eruption.  Yet.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea?inst=101742

An interesting deformation plot to go along with the eqs..

How much is noise, and how much is actual change in the ground is still too early to say, but that much deflation suggests magma's on the move.. 

Note: this file is not static, but rather will update itself every 10-15 minutes.. so can be looked at through this event to watch for changes..

This plot is most definitely static. I don't know what file you're referring to.

[kalianna]

Itʻs the tiltmeter. It updates online continuously. This is a screen capture of that point in time. Pretty clear to me.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/s...ta-kilauea

[TomK]

Thanks. You'd think MyManao might have provided the link.

PS. "Electronic Tilt" is a weird term. I know what they mean but it can be misinterpreted.