Vog in the forecast

[terracore]

I noticed "haze" in my local NWS forecast so dug a little deeper and here's a good visual:

http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/new/

[Durian Fiend]

SE winds must cause some of the emissions to back up against Mauna Loa and trickle our way at times.
Was that forecast made before or after the fountaining paused?

[kalianna]

Driving around lower Puna today, the haze was quite noticeable and the eruption is paused.

[MyManao]

http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/new/

Wow, the end of the forecasting period on that model has us drowning in the stuff.. yikes.. 

I wonder how they forecast amount of vog? Bigger eruption, smaller, none, just after, years without, all make a lot of difference. Even in this eruption itself.. it erupted, lots of gas output, then paused, and during the pause the erupted lava drained back into the system. And then it erupted again but with much less gas.. as the lava that had been erupted and drained back erupted again, but already gas depleted.. all make for variations on the theme. And that model projects so many days ahead.. I wonder what it relies on for volume of gas over time?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Vog variables this morning:

Vog is heavier than air
It’s cold this AM, someone at Volcano market said 40 degrees (?). Cold air is heavier than warm air.
There’s no wind

The warm gas rises from the fissure, hits the cold air, cools the volcanic gases which travel downslope now relatively heavier, with no wind to mix it with lower elevation trade winds.

Vog was hanging over Volcano Village this morning.

[terracore]

I noticed that the NWS removed the haze from the forecast. I did see a miniscule amount.

[kalianna]

Better, but still not great.
https://www.windy.com/-Menu/menu?tcso2,1...-158.111,7
https://map.purpleair.com/air-quality-st...4800%2FcC0&select=210065#10.82/19.5836/-155.1453

[Obie]

The vog reached moderate levels in Hilo and HPP. I could smell it and taste it most of the day.

[TomK]

http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/new/

Wow, the end of the forecasting period on that model has us drowning in the stuff.. yikes.. 

I wonder how they forecast amount of vog? Bigger eruption, smaller, none, just after, years without, all make a lot of difference. Even in this eruption itself.. it erupted, lots of gas output, then paused, and during the pause the erupted lava drained back into the system. And then it erupted again but with much less gas.. as the lava that had been erupted and drained back erupted again, but already gas depleted.. all make for variations on the theme. And that model projects so many days ahead.. I wonder what it relies on for volume of gas over time?

I strongly suspect that meteorologists use the current gas output from Kilauea to forecast where the vog will be. They don't know if the volcano will stop erupting, so their forecast is based on current events. Please let us and them know if you have a better way of forecasting vog.