Kilauea Eruption 12/23/24

[MyManao]

I'm asking questions as a scientist and as a layperson… What are your thoughts..

My thoughts?

I am sorry Tom, it has gotten, if not impossible, extremely hard to bat around ideas with you anymore. As if it ever was easy.. considering how one sided your approach to reality is. How everything has to be to your way of thinking otherwise it is wrong. It’s always been that way.. which is why I have, through the years, pointing out that scientists are people that view the world objectively, and to call oneself a scientist one has to demonstrate objective reasoning, and you have always struggled with that. Here, at least, you’re always, seemingly, been led around by your emotions, by your likes and dislikes. You never have demonstrated objectivity in discourse here, ever. You may have objectivity when observing a star.. but never here. With starlight, sure, with people, not so much. And you have never been able to grok simple physics as it applies to the workings of Earth's structures. I am sorry, you’ve always missed that mark.

Again, you may know the nuances of starlight, but otherwise, you have not shown an appreciation for the more mundane Earth sciences, or impartiality in general. In reality, overall, you’re just another person, a bully in fact. A person that brags about himself but otherwise is mean to anyone that threatens their sense of their own superiority.

So, please, accept my condolences.. and stop embarrassing yourself. It’s time to put it out to pasture. Tell us how your day’s going, howz the family, the pets, share a published article on some obscure star system and what the real researchers are gleaming from its light. But you gotta recognize when I say white and you insist I said black, and insist over and over again, it’s time to find another pastime.. proving your superiority to us isn’t working anymore. As if it ever did. But hey, you’ve had a good run at trying, and now it’s time to give it up. Find another hobby. Being nice, encouraging others, maybe that's the ticket. Who knows, but hey, you might as well give it a try, right?

[TomK]

I'm asking questions as a scientist and as a layperson… What are your thoughts..

My thoughts?

I am sorry Tom, it has gotten, if not impossible, extremely hard to bat around ideas with you anymore. As if it ever was easy.. considering how one sided your approach to reality is. How everything has to be to your way of thinking otherwise it is wrong. It’s always been that way.. which is why I have, through the years, pointing out that scientists are people that view the world objectively, and to call oneself a scientist one has to demonstrate objective reasoning, and you have always struggled with that. Here, at least, you’re always, seemingly, been led around by your emotions, by your likes and dislikes. You never have demonstrated objectivity in discourse here, ever. You may have objectivity when observing a star.. but never here. With starlight, sure, with people, not so much. And you have never been able to grok simple physics as it applies to the workings of Earth's structures. I am sorry, you’ve always missed that mark.

Again, you may know the nuances of starlight, but otherwise, you have not shown an appreciation for the more mundane Earth sciences, or impartiality in general. In reality, overall, you’re just another person, a bully in fact. A person that brags about himself but otherwise is mean to anyone that threatens their sense of their own superiority.

So, please, accept my condolences.. and stop embarrassing yourself. It’s time to put it out to pasture. Tell us how your day’s going, howz the family, the pets, share a published article on some obscure star system and what the real researchers are gleaming from its light. But you gotta recognize when I say white and you insist I said black, and insist over and over again, it’s time to find another pastime.. proving your superiority to us isn’t working anymore. As if it ever did. But hey, you’ve had a good run at trying, and now it’s time to give it up. Find another hobby. Being nice, encouraging others, maybe that's the ticket. Who knows, but hey, you might as well give it a try, right?

There you go. I'm assuming the best and asking questions, which results in the above. It's from someone who claimed rising sea levels and sinking Hawaiian islands cancel out.

It doesn't matter who is an "expert" in one field or another. It's how you use the scientific method when making a claim, and it's clear you don't use it. Instead, you make personal attacks toward whoever asks questions or points out problems and wants to know more.

[MyManao]

My guess is that MyManao would be willing to breakdown his musings about the volcano a bit more for those engaged in good faith and interested in the topic. But maybe he's asking for a rope and pen that will write and never did plan anyway to go to Black Diamond Bay? Have to wait and see I guess.

I've been trying.. but god knows our wannabe 'scientist' has been giving us all a lesson in senility that has, again, overwhelmed the thread.. but hey I'll try and recap.. 

I find it interesting.. and wonder.. does that change in tilt that happens because of the heating and cooling of the atmosphere actually account for more magma to flow, and if so then the total tilt over time as plotted is directly tied to magma accumulation regardless of the atmospheric contribution? Or, is that illusionary in that there is no increase in flow and as such the overall amount of magma accumulating is less than the end point of the tilt plot suggests? In other words, do we have to subtract all that atmospheric activity to get a true sense of how much magma is accumulating over time?

The above, #55 in this thread, is my original question..

And here is my post a few earlier, #52, which started my question.. with the plot, and the steps in inflation clearly seen as bracketing the noon hour..

Ok.. something simple.. with the hopes an idea can be batted around without too much pilikia..

Watching the tilt up at Kilauea’s summit, and keyed in to the current cycles.. so much rapid deflation during an eruptive event followed by so much slower inflation leading up to another event.. and we are now poised to start the whole cycle over again.. maybe she'll erupt today?
But have you noticed those daily cycles.. during the inflation periods.. of a slightly more inflation every day around noon.. almost like clockwork? Little cycles interspersed in the larger inflation cycles?

(H)ere’s a one month view of.. ..those increases in inflation seen at every mid day point in the plot..

It really has been that simple all along. Are those steps real? In other words do they reflect changes in mass, magma, or do they only reflect the diurnal, and are noise? 

I didn't there, initially, say which I think they are, I just asked a question. I have said what I think further on, but I was really just trying to open up a question, not impose my own answer on it.. to have an open discussion.. no more.. and still our wannabe could not understand that to save his life.. and, unfortunately, needed to go on and on about it..

Anyways.. I still think the question is just a little point of interest.. no big deal.. really.. a very little point, but one I was thinking about so I asked..

And meanwhile..

There you go. I'm assuming the best and asking questions..

Actually, you're showing signs of mental decline.. it's time to see a doctor Tom. Really, if I say something is one way and for days.. days.. after it's been repeated over and over again you say I said it is otherwise, you have to ask yourself if your marbles are still all in order. I am serious, Tom, you're embarrassing yourself.. repeatedly, here.. do you need me to copy and paste it all over again? Read the record, read this thread, and apply the scientific method to your reading.. you're going batshit crazy brah. It is no joke Tom. I am not picking on you, not playing games with you. You need to see a doctor.. and nobody here is playing one at the moment so maybe do it the old way.. actually go see one.

[TomK]

Whatever. It seems you get upset when someone asks you questions about your claims and just resort to ad hominem attacks.

[ironyak]

(See if I can follow the bouncing tilt-o-meter :)

First a question - if the daily cycle is attributable to the thermal expansion of the surrounding rock, why is this expansion not uniform and invisible to the tilt meter? What about the arrangement of the instrument leads to recording a consistent daily pattern of inflation / deflation?

Overall, I would agree with kalianna as to considering if it's a thermal phenomenon, is it more pronounced with days that have greater cold to hot temperature changes compared to days/seasons with more even temperatures? Is it seen in other drops in atmospheric pressure such as storms not strictly tied to thermal expansion?

Ultimately, is the notion that the thermal expansion of the rock may allow more a bit more magma to push its way up beyond the regular pace of inflation? A little bounce in the increase of magma as the overhead crust thermally loosens a bit more around midday? Imagining a pie now with the crust growing more and more flaky as it heats making it easier for the gooey mass underneath to expand and break through. Probably time to go eat! :)

[TomK]

Well, you're asking the same questions I did. The problem is that there seems to be no correlation between the tiny diurnal "blips" and eruptions. Another question I had was about the cause of the "blips." Do the instruments themselves cause them, or are they real? Any reasonable scientist might ask these questions, even if they are not an expert in the field.

[ironyak]

Well maybe you'll listen to USGS for some answers to your questions TomK. The "blips" or "diurnal noise" are real readings from the instrument caused by the thermal expansion of the surrounding rock.

https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/n...nsequences
"One non-volcanic source of tilt is the heating of the ground that happens on sunny days. Most of HVO’s tiltmeters are installed in boreholes about 3 to 4 m (10 to 13 ft) below the ground and are surrounded by rock. This rock expands as it warms up during the day, and any unevenness in its expansion will produce an easily measurable ground tilt. This is “diurnal noise,” which can be easily identified because it happens regularly during the day."

This uneven expansion partially helps answer my question as to why the daily tilt pattern happens at all, but not why it appears to always be in an inflationary direction in the data provided. My guess is that each tilt meter would have a particular diurnal noise pattern that is consistent with the thermal expansion of the surrounding rock, but for some meters that might cause a downward dip or other effect seen daily in the data. The inflationary pattern just happens to be the daily pattern for the tilt meter providing the data under discussion. Would that make sense MyManao? Are there other tilt meters showing other distinct diurnal noise patterns?

As for the effects the diurnal pattern may have on eruptions, that's beyond my paygrade, but I did run across this interesting paper about tilt meters at Mt Etna, and how even over a decade ago they have reached the sensitivity where they can detect Earth Tide effects, or the movement of the ground due to the passing gravitational pull of the moon and sun (midday surge?), and some speculation that apparently dates to at least the 1930s that such earth tide effects may have some influence on earthquakes and volcanic eruptive activities. All of which is wild to me.

If the diurnal warming has at least as much effect as the earth tide on tilt (which it appears to based on the numbers?) then speculation about its possible effects on eruptive activity seems reasonable to consider?

I highly doubt anyone is checking scientific credentials at the PunaWeb door, nor is anyone saying they should - only noting that everyone should assume the best, ask questions, and be open to answers and discussion? As those old Zen Buddhists like to note, "In the beginner's mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few."

[kalianna]

This morning, I looked at the livestream with occasional spurts of lava but no eruption called so far. So what defines an eruption? Is it continuous fountaining over a certain amount of time? Inflation/deflation? (its flat right now), background tremor? Or is it one of those "if it quacks like a duck" things? Itʻs usually pretty obvious but this series of eruptions has spent considerable time in the grey zone. Thoughts?

[Obie]

According to the USGS when it starts flowing continuously or fountaining.
Too bad it's foggy and rainy. You could probably go up there and hang around because it should start sometime today.

[kalianna]

I hope you meant USGS. If it was up to USPS, it could go on for days without getting a notice. 
Thanks for that info, Obie.