Monday/Tuesday frontal passage

[TomK]

There's even a blizzard watch for the summits. We don't get those very often.

[harryd]

We've seen some model evolution of the cold pool aloft slated to pass from west to east around 300 miles north of us. The air aloft associated with the low is 3C colder and further north than it was in the models a couple of days ago. The upper level low is forecast to produce a surface reflection to our south tomorrow (Tuesday). They show this surface feature disrupting the cold front that is currently passing through the island chain. So it doesn't look like the front will actually make it this far east. It should wash out around central Maui. This changes the wind direction and strength for the lower levels, but the mountain tops continue with the forecast of strong winds and convection snow. Nearer the coast our winds should be mostly light and variable with periods of gusts from nearby convection. The previous forecast showed strong and persistant northeast winds. Thunderstorms and brief downpours are possible anywhere, but it doesn't currently look like a big storm for us. One caveat is if a surface reflection forms to our west. If that were the case we would see southeast flow, and that can mean stationary rainbands in Puna and Kau. This is not the current forecast. But it is a possible outcome. I wouldn't be surprised to see 6"-12" of snow on Mauna Kea by Thursday morning. If the air is as cold as forecast, the snow may extend far down the slopes.