12-20-2014, 06:17 AM
Big front moving through the island chain Monday/Tuesday.
The GFS and ECMWF models are coming more into agreement with the latest runs. Winds at the surface and aloft will be quite different.
At the surface... as the front approaches winds will become light and variable. A general pattern will be onshore (east wind) during daylight hours and offshore (west wind) nighttime. This pattern will last today through Tuesday.
Aloft... winds will be very strong from the west-southwest as 2 jet streaks move overhead from the west. The second one on Monday and Tuesday will be quite strong and this will allow venting for convective plumes (possible thunderstorms). Mostly this applies to the smaller islands, though there is a small chance that interior heating will allow for thunderstorms over our mountains too.
Precipitation prior to frontal passage should favor the northwest facing aspects of our island. Puna is on the lee (drier) side. There could be downpours associated with frontal passage on Tuesday afternoon and evening island wide.
The upper level winds may push vog and smoke upstream (northeast). Although this could be recirculated back over us by lower level winds, the pollution will be less concentrated.
After frontal passage the winds will pick up a lot from the northeast. We could see 24-36 hours of moderate to fresh gale winds. This could cause some tree branches to break off. Not so much from the speed, but from the duration. The ocean will become very choppy.
That's all I got. A couple of days ago, the GFS had this system stronger and further south. But now it's not so scary. famous last words
surface winds: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_l..._WINDS_SLP
upper level winds: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_l..._HGT_WINDS
The GFS and ECMWF models are coming more into agreement with the latest runs. Winds at the surface and aloft will be quite different.
At the surface... as the front approaches winds will become light and variable. A general pattern will be onshore (east wind) during daylight hours and offshore (west wind) nighttime. This pattern will last today through Tuesday.
Aloft... winds will be very strong from the west-southwest as 2 jet streaks move overhead from the west. The second one on Monday and Tuesday will be quite strong and this will allow venting for convective plumes (possible thunderstorms). Mostly this applies to the smaller islands, though there is a small chance that interior heating will allow for thunderstorms over our mountains too.
Precipitation prior to frontal passage should favor the northwest facing aspects of our island. Puna is on the lee (drier) side. There could be downpours associated with frontal passage on Tuesday afternoon and evening island wide.
The upper level winds may push vog and smoke upstream (northeast). Although this could be recirculated back over us by lower level winds, the pollution will be less concentrated.
After frontal passage the winds will pick up a lot from the northeast. We could see 24-36 hours of moderate to fresh gale winds. This could cause some tree branches to break off. Not so much from the speed, but from the duration. The ocean will become very choppy.
That's all I got. A couple of days ago, the GFS had this system stronger and further south. But now it's not so scary. famous last words
surface winds: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_l..._WINDS_SLP
upper level winds: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_l..._HGT_WINDS