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I occasionally fancy myself knowledgeable about real estate markets, but am baffled after reading this:
http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/blog/..._lulu_rdup&s=newsletter&ed=2015-02-06&u=P8xMf0G0mSnp5SfsS42+6A06958d49&t=1423243392
In particular: "The median price in the Puna district rose 16 percent to $186,270, from $160,000 in January last year." Keep in mind that the decisions to buy this January's purchases were made back around Thanksgiving, when Pele was still menacing Pahoa (still is, for that matter). I'm pretty sure flowing lava and uninsurable houses should make prices go down, not up. [Edited typo]
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My first thought would be that the Puna district is quite large and the lava flow is only having a negative effect upon a portion of it. Places like HPP and Orchidland, etc., have had large price increases as well as sales. Leilani, Nanawale, Hawaiian Beaches/Shores have had very little actual closed sales.
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There is a fair amount of new construction in HPP.
When I saw existing homes go up for sale over the last few months I thought it might be owners trying to get out before the lava flow affected prices. Of the homes that sold in my neighborhood most got close to their asking price, and all the sellers I spoke with said the lava had no impact on their move. Selling prices did seem higher than a year ago.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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The number of houses being built, lots getting ripped, and tourists I've seen in rental cars in Orchidland in the last year has exploded.
ETA: 100% of the builders/rippers we have spoken with, are from out of state.
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Agreed about rapid build out of HPP and OLE, although true to form, new construction in HPP is mostly traditional slab-tied homes, where OLE has many tent, trailer, shed, and container homes thrown in the mix.
Zillow is pretty good for recent sales:
http://www.zillow.com/homes/recently_sol...ect/10_zm/
Looking at the last 90 days, leilanidude's summary is spot-on. HPP sales look strong in volume and asking price. Ainaloa is down moderately both as a percentage of sales and from asking price. HS/HB is very under pressure with only a handful of sales and many of those well below initial asking price. Almost no sales in Leilani and Nanavale at all which is significantly different from even the last 6 months.
Given so few recent comparables for some areas, it will be interesting to see how the assessments go...
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Finally it's official. Everyone who claimed with seeming authority that property values have dropped 50% since lava threaten have their claims dampened. I'm ready to get a small studio/1BR as a second home among the seaside communities in lower Puna so I've been checking zillow for 50% off prices with no satisfaction at all. Maybe if 130 is lava closed it'll happen. I would be happy to only go to town once a week even if 110miles round trip for the seclusion and quiescence of living in lower paradise. Then I might sell my OCE home and acreage. Meanwhile here in OCE new homes are being built gang busters. 4 in my 1 mile long block over the past 6 months.
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quote:
Originally posted by terracore
The number of houses being built, lots getting ripped, and tourists I've seen in rental cars in Orchidland in the last year has exploded.
ETA: 100% of the builders/rippers we have spoken with, are from out of state.
What's the old saying..."no such thing as bad publicity". I'll speculate that the repeated international news articles and TV exposure for lil' ol' Puna drew oodles of eyeballs in our direction, and plenty of them liked what they saw. Pele is a marketing genius!
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HS/HB is very under pressure with only a handful of sales and many of those well below initial asking price. Almost no sales in Leilani and Nanavale at all which is significantly different from even the last 6 months.
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To the person saying that lower Puna seaside prices haven't fallen... Location, location... Those properties are in a whole different area than HB/HS, Nanawale, Leilani.
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When is the market not good?
Buy wen low
Sell wen high
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quote:
Originally posted by leilanidude
HS/HB is very under pressure with only a handful of sales and many of those well below initial asking price. Almost no sales in Leilani and Nanavale at all which is significantly different from even the last 6 months.
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To the person saying that lower Puna seaside prices haven't fallen... Location, location... Those properties are in a whole different area than HB/HS, Nanawale, Leilani.
From the person saying:
I take your point. Yes, I did not consider HS or HB or other middle puna sd in my thinking, rather I've been looking at prices for Seaview, Puna Palisades, and Kehena. There things to me seem status quo.
