HURRICANE Hector, time to look at storm readiness

[terracore]

You mean the spaghetti models?

https://www.cyclocane.com/hector-spaghetti-models/

They are all tightly grouped (unusual consensus) and showing no threat to the islands.

ETA: fixed link

[knieft]

quote:

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Originally posted by terracore

You mean the spaghetti models?

https://www.cyclocane.com/hector-spaghetti-models/

They are all tightly grouped (unusual consensus) and showing no threat to the islands.

ETA: fixed link

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Yes. Thanks. Looks like so many hurricanes that are afraid of Puna.

Cheers,
Kirt

[Rob Tucker]

Evening update:

Track forecast for Hector

The 12Z Tuesday runs of our top models for tracking hurricanes, the European, UKMET, GFS, and HWRF models, all showed Hector passing at least 150 miles south of the Big Island on Wednesday.

The 5pm EDT Tuesday Wind Speed Probability forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave the southern tip of the Big Island a 22% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds 39 mph of greater; Hector’s tropical storm-force winds extended up to 90 miles from the center at 11 am EDT Tuesday.

The 6Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model predicted that Hector’s heavy rains would remain south of the Big Island, with an inch or less of rain falling on the eastern sides of the Big Island and Maui. However, it would not be a surprise to see a band of heavy rain affect these islands on Wednesday, bringing isolated rainfall amounts of up to 4” that could cause localized flash flooding.

For now, though, it appears that high surf will be the main threat Hector poses to Hawaii. Surf of 12 to 15 feet is predicted for the Big Island, mainly for the Puna and Kau districts, with surf of 6 to 10 feet for eastern Maui.

[leilanidude]

The spaghetti models show probable path of the eye, not the size of the storm, which is over 250 miles across.

[macuu222]

Some storm! 6:30am and not even a breeze in lower HPP. We had a brief shower overnight. They should at least change the tropical storm "warning" to a watch! The highest wind speed predicted for south point is now 37MPH which is 2 degrees below the minimum tropical storm speed. And the rest of the island is trade wind weather.

[ElysianWort]

Heck. I'm fine if that Hector was a big worry about nothing.