For What It’s Worth - Quake / Eruption Prediction

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

I don’t put too much stock in divining the future, except hurricane forecasts 48 hours or less from landfall, and potential tsunamis with measurements confirmed by ocean buoys.  
But here’s an earthquake/Mauna Loa eruption combo for you:

Researchers at the University of Miami in Florida have published a paper that says Mauna Loa could be nearing its next eruption and that a magnitude-6 earthquake or greater could set it off.

Not only does the paper warn of the possibility of a strong earthquake; it says the rattler, if it does occur, will be on the Kona side of the mountain.

“If the rate (of magma influx) continues at the current rate, it should be soon,” said Falk Amelung, professor of geophysics at Miami’s Rosenstiel School and one of the co-authors of the paper


https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/06/2...4ed5f74958

[terracore]

There does seem to be a bit of "urgency" in the article:

"The column suggested packing “go” bags containing essential items, including important documents such as a birth certificate, deeds, legal papers and medications, in case of an evacuation order.

HVO said preparation was especially important for those on the west side of the island because flows from Mauna Loa’s Southwest Rift Zone flows can reach — and have reached — populated areas in a matter of hours.

Also in March state lawmakers formally requested that the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency develop an evacuation plan for Hawaii County in the event of an eruption of Mauna Loa."

[kalakoa]

birth certificate, deeds, legal papers and medications

That way, the thieves ripping you off only need to find the go-bag!

[TomK]

Well firstly, I would hope most Big Island residents have a go-bag already given the island is subject to natural disasters, but I'd be surprised if most criminals breaking into a house are looking for passports or legal papers. Then again, perhaps Kalakoa has some insight into what local criminals want and so would ask how this knowledge is gained?

[Durian Fiend]

It's the drugs, Tom. Prescription meds are a big score for petty crooks.

Interesting prognostication for the long mountain, thanks for sharing.

[terracore]

birth certificate, deeds, legal papers and medications

That way, the thieves ripping you off only need to find the go-bag!

The perfect place to steal somebody's identity is at the DMV.  I had to bring literally every important document to prove my legal existence to renew license.  Somebody could have grabbed my baggie and ran off to a getaway car.  Or at least, that's how I was treating the situation.

I know you're thinking, "but it's next to the police station".  I think only the dispatchers are there most of the time.  I remember pictures on social media of a broken down SUV getting stripped on the side of the road right in front of the station, and posts about people calling it in but nobody was available to respond.

[Olohana 1790]

kinda a dumb common sense report.
fwiw. Mauna Loa has erupted 34 times since John 'Olohana' Young built his western style home in Kawaihae...

iow. 34 times since Hualalai last erupted.... why would anyone think 35 won't come soon???

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Mauna Loa can't touch Kailiua-Kona. it can go above Hualalai and below Hualalai, and reach Milolii or Hookena easy.... ie a flow in 1950 went 15 miles and dumped into sea in ONLY 3 hours time!... 5 MPH a'a flow!
it can also easily reach much of HOVE... it can't reach some areas of Puna, and can easily reach Hilo Bay with a longer (time) flow.... in 1881 and 1984 it came close to Hilo...

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why talk about ID theft. plz stay on topic terracore. wtf!

[terracore]

Thanks again Rob for upgrading the forum software.

[dan_c]

Thanks again Rob for upgrading the forum software.

 
 
I'll second what Terracore said.