Changes in Kilauea's Eruption?

[dakine]

A quick glance at the deformation page on HVO's website:

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/kilauea/update/deformation.php

Shows a rapid deflation of the summit in progress. As I write there has been close to 3 microradians lost so far and the plot is showing the loss is getting greater (more rapid) over time.

This is graphically evident in the drop in the level of the lava lake at Halemaumau as seen on several webcams linked from here:

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/cams/

Where one can see that the level of the lake has dropped well below the height it has been at over the last few weeks.

There has also been a series of earthquakes down the upper rift as far as Mauna Ulu, as seen here:

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/seismic/volcweb/e.../index.php

But without better data publicly available it is hard to draw any definitive conclusions.

This is indicative of magma migrating away from the summit, possibly down the East Rift. At least that is the pattern we've seen over the years. But, again, without better instrumentation available to the public it is hard to be more specific. Though if prior events of this nature are any indication of what might be happening an upper (mauka of Puu Oo) eruption is the most likely bet. Though other scenarios, such as the surge (if whats what is happening) getting down to Puu Oo and erupting from there, are possible also.

[Kiana]

Things are very interesting on the mountain (and under it!).

It was reported on bigislandnow.com that HVNP has closed a campground and suspended back country permits temporarily as they are watching this:

"...park officials are going to be watching the seismicity of Kilauea over the next few days to see what happens.

HVNP officials say that the increase in seismicity and the drop in Kilauea’s summit lava lake is similar to what occurred during the Kamoamoa fissure eruption in 2011. During the 2011 erruption, park officials were unable to tell where lava would emerge.

Closures are being conducted solely out of precaution. HVNP officials say there is no immediate indication that the same event that occurred in 2011 is presently happening."

Here's a link to the full article but it doesn't say much more:
http://bigislandnow.com/2015/05/11/hvnp-...ampground/

[Bullwinkle]

Thinking the same thing - where is the lava lake going?

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-274.jpg